Putin is trapped in his own war, and tensions in the Kremlin are mounting
Tensions are mounting in the Kremlin over the consequences of the war against Ukraine, which, according to Western analysts, has become a strategic failure for Putin, undermining his power and the stability of the system. Despite certain “trump cards” in foreign policy, economic, political, and social risks are mounting within Russia that can no longer be concealed.
Experts warn: even the end of the war will not restore Russia’s lost ground. British historian and Russia expert Robert Service writes about this in his column for The Telegraph.
The war against Ukraine, which the Kremlin once planned as a short and swift campaign culminating in a “parade in Kyiv,” has gradually turned into a protracted and exhausting conflict that is altering the very nature of the Russian state; in the assessments of Western historians, it is already being described as a strategic failure of such magnitude that it will be difficult to rectify even over the course of years.
Service points out that Russian history has shown time and again: defeats in major wars can become a turning point for regimes, and now, in his view, the Kremlin finds itself in a similar situation, where the gap between propaganda and reality is becoming increasingly evident. “The war has become a colossal geopolitical blunder for the Kremlin,” the author notes, emphasizing that even despite certain foreign policy opportunities Moscow is attempting to exploit, the overall strategic picture for Russia is deteriorating.
According to the historian, Putin retains certain “trump cards” on the international stage, particularly due to the complex geopolitical game among major powers; however, these advantages do not compensate for the country’s internal exhaustion, where the economy is under pressure from the war, and society and the elites are gradually growing weary of the protracted conflict.
Separately, he draws attention to the atmosphere within the Kremlin, which he describes as increasingly tense, as tighter control over information, restrictions on digital platforms, and attempts to manage public sentiment are not yielding the expected results, especially among the younger generation of Russians. “Putin continues to speak of victory, but the image of the unbreakable leader is gradually cracking under the pressure of reality,” the analysis states, noting that mass mobilization and further military losses could further intensify domestic discontent.
The author suggests that even if the war ends on the Kremlin’s terms, Russia will no longer be able to regain its former level of influence in the world, as the consequences of the conflict have shifted the balance of power and undermined trust in Russian policy on the international stage.
At the same time, the Service warns that the future remains unpredictable: Putin may resort to further escalation or drastic measures, and his successor will not necessarily change the country’s course, although Russia may still have a chance for a gradual softening of its domestic and foreign policies.
Some Western media outlets have also previously reported on the Russian leader’s growing isolation and the tightening of security measures around him, which, according to experts, may indicate a rise in mistrust even within the Russian political elite.
