Nobel Peace Prize leak under investigation after Polymarket betting surge

The Nobel Peace Prize organizers have launched an investigation after betting activity on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket surged in favor of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado — hours before her official win was announced. Her odds jumped from 3.7% to over 70% in less than one night.

Source Financial Times

Data from Polymarket shows a single user placed a $1,500 bet for Machado shortly after midnight, coinciding with a spike in her probability score. The unusual timing raised suspicions of a possible leak from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which had reportedly called the winner just before Friday’s announcement.

Polymarket, known for reflecting trader sentiment rather than bookmaker predictions, came under scrutiny as the Nobel Institute confirmed it was reviewing whether inside information had been leaked. Such incidents have echoes of earlier decades when premature leaks occasionally reached the media before official Nobel ceremonies.