A fuel shortage is expected across Russia through August
Sources report that a shortage of gasoline has emerged in the Russian fuel market. If the situation does not stabilize by the second half of the summer, the fuel shortage could spread beyond Crimea and affect other regions of the Russian Federation.
Fuel market participants have reported difficulties with fuel supplies, particularly to central Russia. At the same time, according to one source, current fuel reserves are currently preventing a shortage.
“So far, we are seeing a significant fuel shortage only in Crimea. In the rest of Russia, there are still reserves, but there is also a shortage of current supply. If the situation does not improve, by late July or early August, the shortage will have spread to a greater number of regions,” the source said.
The situation on the fuel market has already triggered a rise in gasoline prices at gas stations in Moscow and the Moscow region, according to data from the Moscow Fuel Association. According to the data, the average price of diesel fuel at gas stations in the Moscow region rose by 0.7% from May 25 to 31, to 78 rubles 49 kopecks per liter; AI-92 rose by 0.4%, to 64 rubles 67 kopecks; and AI-95 rose by 0.5% to 71 rubles 46 kopecks per liter. A week earlier, according to Rosstat, the average increase in fuel prices across Russia was lower—the average price of gasoline rose by 0.34%, and diesel fuel by 0.46%.
Against this backdrop, the government has begun preparing new measures to increase fuel supplies to the market, RBC reported on Tuesday. These include increasing supply volumes from Belarus, raising payments under the import price cap, extending the zero import duty rate on gasoline until June 30, 2027, and eliminating the excise tax on AI-95 gasoline, obtained by blending AI-92 gasoline and octane-boosting additives at oil depots, as well as a complete ban on gasoline exports for a period of two months, including supplies under certain intergovernmental agreements.
The measures already adopted are clearly insufficient to stabilize the situation on the fuel market, Russian media reported. According to them, the government is considering new tools to increase supplies to the domestic market, such as restricting exports to EAEU countries.
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As a reminder, amid the escalating situation in the Middle East, the discount on Russian Urals crude began to rise for the first time in recent months. However, experts say that expensive oil will not save the Russian economy from a slowdown.
The price of Russian Urals crude at Indian ports jumped to a record $121.65 per barrel.
