U.S. National Debt Reaches $40 Trillion: The Conference Board Assesses the Impact on Households
U.S. national debt has reached $40 trillion, and federal government interest payments on the debt in fiscal year 2026 are expected to exceed $1 trillion. Fortune reports this, citing data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
The Conference Board, an analytical organization, has modeled the potential impact of continued government borrowing on Americans’ personal finances. The baseline scenario is based on current trends and data from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. They also considered a favorable scenario, in which the federal deficit is roughly halved, and an unfavorable one, with the deficit rising to 9% of GDP from the current 6–7%.
One of the models focuses on a family saving to purchase a $600,000 home in 2031 or 2036, with a 20% down payment and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. In the baseline scenario, total payments for a home purchased in 2031 are estimated at $2.89 million, and for a home purchased in 2036, at $2.8 million. However, the report does not explain the methodology used to calculate mortgage rates for those years.
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Under a favorable scenario—which assumes lower government borrowing and lower interest rates—the total amount of payments for buyers in 2031 could be $53,000 less, and for buyers in 2036—by more than $100,000. In a U.S. default scenario, payments on a 30-year mortgage for a home purchased in 2031 would exceed $3 million, and in a scenario involving a sharp spike in interest rates, they would reach $3.6 million.
The Conference Board also assessed the potential consequences of cuts to Social Security benefits. If payments from the trust fund are reduced, the monthly income of workers nearing retirement could be $173 lower in 2032, in 2033 by $705, in 2034 by $721, and in 2036 by $754 compared to current projections. According to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the Social Security trust fund could run out of money in less than eight years, and Medicare’s in less than seven years.
Michael Peterson of the Peterson Institute told Fortune that large-scale government borrowing could drive up interest rates and increase household expenses on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, as well as through inflation.
