The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq remains high, but signals negative sentiment on the market

The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq-100 continues to be high at around 0.8, but BTC reacts mostly to negative market movements. Despite the fact that the price of BTC is close to record highs, there is a structural asymmetry when Bitcoin declines on the days of stocks' drops more than it rises on the days of rises. This situation indicates investor exhaustion rather than euphoria.

Source Wintermute

The asymmetry of BTC price movements is observed in 2025, where investors in cryptocurrencies, unlike the stock market, do not receive optimistic signals. The influence of tech giants' stocks reduces attention to BTC, as most investors seek risky assets on the Nasdaq. Despite the correlation during changes in risk sentiment, Bitcoin behaves like a "high beta" asset only in unfavorable situations.

The BTC market is also facing various liquidity issues as stablecoin issuance and ETF inflows have slowed down. This leads to increased negative reactions during equity market corrections. The analysis shows that the current asymmetry in BTC/Nasdaq performance indicates heightened anxiety among investors, reinforcing that BTC is maintaining negative trends in its reaction to the market.