Kalshi users outperform Wall Street analysts in macroeconomic forecasts
The US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) found that participants on the Kalshi platform provide forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and interest rates that are as accurate, or sometimes more accurate, than the estimates of leading Wall Street analysts and market futures.
Specifically, Kalshi’s forecasts for consumer price inflation (CPI) had an average error margin of 0.063 percentage points, compared to 0.081 points for professional analysts. Accuracy for core inflation and unemployment rates was roughly equal between Kalshi participants and experts. Moreover, Kalshi users predicted Federal Reserve decisions on meeting days flawlessly, outperforming market futures and survey experts.
Researchers suggest this is because professional traders often rely on market instruments whose prices reflect certain expectations, while Kalshi’s platform aggregates assessments from a broad participant base, leading to greater precision in complex macroeconomic forecasting.
Kalshi users could become a vital source for future macroeconomic predictions, offering new opportunities for decision-making in financial markets.
