Polymarket declines to pay out on US invasion bets in Venezuela
Polymarket announced that it will not pay out bets on a “US invasion of Venezuela” because the event in question refers to US control over part of Venezuelan territory rather than a full-scale invasion. The seizure or arrest of the country’s president without US territorial control over Venezuela does not qualify as an invasion.
Source Financial Times
The platform clarified its invasion criteria for betting payouts, affecting outcome results and payments. This incident highlights the challenges in interpreting political events on prediction markets and the importance of clear rules to avoid disputes.
Going forward, more precise wording in such betting contracts will be necessary to prevent misunderstandings when assessing complex international situations.
