Most Americans consider prediction markets to be gambling
According to a March 2026 survey by Morning Consult, 81% of Americans view prediction markets as mere gambling rather than legitimate financial instruments. Only 29% of respondents trust the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to adequately regulate such contracts.
The survey also revealed that 73% of participants believe terms like "event contracts" or "swaps" disguise the real financial risks of these platforms. Nearly half (49%) expressed doubts about these platforms’ ability to effectively prevent insider trading.
Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket are officially recognized by the U.S. CFTC. However, access to their services depends on specific legal restrictions, while ultimate regulatory authority remains with the U.S. Congress and Supreme Court.
Kalshi and Polymarket operate prediction markets where users can place bets on various outcomes, resembling exchange trading but involving significant risks and elements of gambling.
Widespread skepticism about the nature and safety of these platforms may shape future U.S. regulatory policy, particularly concerning fraud prevention and consumer protection.
It is expected that U.S. regulators will continue clarifying rules around prediction markets and defining the boundaries between investment and gambling in this emerging sector.
