Democrats hold a slight edge in prediction markets for the US Senate
In prediction markets, Democrats hold a slight edge in estimates of their chances of gaining control of the US Senate following the November elections. Traders on the Kalshi platform put the probability of such an outcome at 54%, while on Polymarket it stands at 59%, CNBC Top News reports.
Battle for 33 seats
The Republican Party is defending its majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. At the same time, the contest for the upper chamber of Congress had previously been considered more difficult for Democrats. Republicans control 20 of the 33 Senate seats that are up for election this year.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to win in several states where President Donald Trump had a margin of more than 10 percentage points in the 2024 election. CNBC names Alaska, Texas, and Ohio among those states.
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How the estimates changed
At the beginning of 2026, prediction markets favored Republicans. Before the start of the war between the United States and Iran on February 28, the chances of the Republican Party retaining control of the Senate on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at about 60%.
According to CNBC, after the war began, estimates shifted amid rising gasoline prices and a decline in Trump's approval rating. In April, the probability of a Democratic victory exceeded the chances of Republicans retaining the chamber. In May and throughout the summer, the Republican Party's position strengthened somewhat after de-escalation between the United States and Iran, which eased pressure on fuel prices.
In recent weeks, the situation has changed again: the price of oil in the United States has exceeded $100 per barrel, the average gasoline price in the country is more than $4 per gallon, and diesel prices have reached a historic high. A poll by The New York Times and Siena University, released on Wednesday, showed that likely voters nationwide favor Democratic candidates in their congressional districts by nearly nine percentage points.
