AI could generate up to 617 million tonnes of e-waste by 2050 — The Verge
The nonprofit organization Basel Action Network forecasts that discarded equipment related to artificial intelligence could account for between 395 million and 617 million metric tonnes of electronic waste in 2025–2050. The Verge reports this, citing the organization’s new report.
According to BAN’s estimate, this corresponds to approximately 8.6–13.1 million metric tonnes of AI-related discarded equipment annually over this period. The upper end of the forecast — 617 million tonnes — would be equivalent to 23 million 40-foot shipping containers. If placed in a row, they could encircle the Earth six times.
The calculation includes all infrastructure
Previous estimates mainly accounted for servers and graphics accelerators. BAN instead included power supply and distribution systems, cooling, backup power and networking equipment in its calculation. The organization believes that studies focused only on servers and accelerators fail to cover about 87% of data centers’ electromechanical infrastructure.
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The report also includes a broad category that BAN calls “AI waste proliferation.” It includes telecommunications infrastructure and personal devices that may become obsolete and be replaced faster as a result of AI development. BAN calculates that each gigawatt of data center capacity will account for about 70,000 metric tonnes of electronic waste. The organization cites a McKinsey forecast according to which total data center capacity could reach 219 GW by 2030.
AI’s share of global waste
BAN forecasts that by 2050, the global volume of electronic waste will triple to 211 million metric tonnes per year. AI could account for 15–20% of this volume, according to the organization’s estimate. Currently, less than a quarter of the 68.3 million tonnes of electronic waste generated worldwide each year is formally collected and recycled.
Another 2024 study estimated the volume of electronic waste from AI at 1.2–5 million tonnes by 2030. Another paper, published in February, projected that by the end of the decade, AI servers would generate between 131,000 and 225,000 tonnes of such waste annually.
