In what happened last night, everything is actually quite clear and logical.
The use of the “Oreshnik” specifically now, and not against Kyiv, as many expected, but against Western Ukraine, is logical. In my view, it was a missile without a warhead — that is, without an explosive component. Although they could have equipped the missile with TNT. But it was likely fitted with metal ballast, and the effect of the strike was kinetic. It resembles an explosion and creates a significant fire.
For understanding, the combat payload of the “Oreshnik” is a nuclear warhead. It is a delivery vehicle for a nuclear munition.
The purpose of such a strike is Putin’s revenge for the alleged attack on his residence, as well as a demonstration by the Russian dictator of his military power. He is reminding NATO that Russia has nuclear weapons. This is meant to make NATO flinch — of course, in the Kremlin’s logic — and stop supplying us with weapons and assistance. It is also a signal to the United States: not to seize Russian tankers and to behave cautiously with regard to Moscow.
Overall, this is yet another instance of nuclear sabre-rattling, that’s all.
Oleh Zhdanov
