Due to Russian attacks and the blockade of ports, steel production in Ukraine could drop by 40%
A combination of Russian attacks on metallurgical plants, problems with maritime logistics, rising transportation costs, and new EU restrictions could lead to a 30–40% decline in steel production in Ukraine, and iron ore production by approximately 40%.
According to analysts’ estimates, the Ukrainian mining and metallurgical sector is losing about $150–200 million in export revenue each month due to restrictions on maritime exports alone.
The situation was significantly exacerbated by the August attacks on “Zaporizhstal” and “ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih.” Following the attack on August 11, Zaporizhstal—which accounted for over 43% of Ukraine’s total steel production last year—shut down. A few days later, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih came under attack, with damage sustained to its power generation and blast furnace operations.
The problems also affected enterprises that were not directly attacked. Due to difficulties with maritime exports, the Southern GOK has suspended mining operations, and other Kryvyi Rih mining and processing plants may cut production by approximately 30%.
Black Sea ports remain critically important for the industry: previously, they handled approximately half of iron ore exports, about 95% of pig iron, and a significant portion of steel products. It is impossible to fully replace sea routes with rail transport and European ports due to lower throughput capacity and significantly higher logistics costs.
New EU quotas and the CBAM mechanism are creating additional pressure. The potential for Ukrainian steel exports to the European Union has shrunk by about 60% compared to 2025 volumes, and the potential CBAM payment is estimated at 50–100 euros per metric ton.
Source: The Page
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