ISW has identified the condition under which Putin might announce a new mobilization

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may be postponing a large-scale forced mobilization in Russia while the Kremlin assesses whether intensifying long-range strikes will allow it to achieve its objectives in the war against Ukraine. This is according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

At the same time, significant losses suffered by the Russian army on the front lines may heighten the need to replenish its ranks. According to analysts, this could force the Kremlin to revise its calculations and resort to a new mobilization as early as this fall.

Analysts drew attention to statements by a well-known Russian military blogger with ties to the Kremlin. He argued that expanding Russia’s arsenal for long-range strikes is cheaper than conducting a second mobilization from an economic, military, and social standpoint.

According to the ISW, Putin may seek to postpone a large-scale forced mobilization, the groundwork for which Russian officials have been laying despite the Kremlin’s denials. First, Moscow may try to determine whether a campaign of massive long-range strikes against Ukraine will prove sufficient.

At the same time, analysts cite the need to replenish Russian units due to massive losses on the front lines as a key factor that could alter this calculation. According to the ISW’s assessment, this could push Putin to carry out a large-scale mobilization as early as this fall. Ukrainian and other sources have previously reported on multiple occasions that the Kremlin is preparing for such a scenario.

The ISW believes that Putin is likely revising his previous assessment of the war. Previously, it was based on the assumption that the Russian army would be able to continue its offensive until Moscow achieved its objectives or Ukraine surrendered.

This is reported with reference to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW stated that Russia has exaggerated its successes on the front lines.

Over the past 24 hours, on September 19, there were 234 combat engagements between the Ukrainian Defense Forces and Russian troops on the front lines. The highest number of attacks was recorded in the Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk sectors, where Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Putin may bet on winter strikes against the energy sector, according to the ISW.