ISW explained why Russia began its attacks on Ukraine's energy sector earlier than expected

Russia likely launched its campaign of strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure earlier this year, according to ISW analysts. In their view, Moscow may be seeking to inflict as much damage as possible before Ukraine deploys new countermeasures.

 

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that the Russian Ministry of Defense has already formulated its main rhetorical position, through which Moscow is attempting to justify an intensified campaign of strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the fall and winter of 2026–2027.

The Russian ministry claims that such strikes are allegedly a response to numerous Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets in Russia, which, according to Moscow, have been ongoing since June 2026.

The ISW believes that this rhetoric may be an attempt to prepare Russian society and the international community for a new large-scale campaign of strikes.

According to analysts, Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield in 2026 appear to be forcing Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to revise his initial plan for achieving victory in the war.

Instead of relying exclusively on the advance of Russian troops on the battlefield, Moscow may place greater emphasis on long-range strikes against Ukrainian territory during the winter of 2026–2027.

“This campaign of strikes aims to make life unbearable for the civilian population in Ukraine so that Ukraine will capitulate to Russia’s demands,” the ISW report states.

Analysts note that Russia has been conducting similar campaigns against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure every winter since the 2022–2023 season.

This time, according to the ISW’s assessment, Moscow may launch attacks earlier to strike at an already damaged energy grid before Ukraine can strengthen its defenses against new Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.

The ISW specifically noted that Russian rhetoric is intended to justify an intensified campaign of strikes against both Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and other critical infrastructure.

On the night of October 4, Russian forces launched 135 drones into Ukrainian territory, including “Shaheds,” “Gerberas,” “Banderole”/“Dan-T,” and decoy drones.

On the morning of October 4, Russian forces struck downtown Dnipro, targeting the premises of a telecommunications company. 

In the Dnipro district of the capital, debris from enemy drones was reported to have fallen at two locations on the morning of October 4. This was reported by Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko.