Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization due to record losses on the front lines, according to Forbes
Russia’s total battlefield losses since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine amount to approximately 1.4 million troops. In 2026, according to analysts’ estimates, the Russian army is losing an average of about 30,000 troops each month.
Amid significant losses and recruitment challenges, Moscow may be preparing a new wave of mobilization following the fall elections to the Russian State Duma.
According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), as of July 1, Russia’s total combat losses stood at approximately 1.4 million troops.
In 2026 alone, analysts estimate that the Russian army is losing approximately 30,000 personnel per month. At the same time, CSIS estimates the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian military casualties to be approximately 8:1.
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that despite its massive losses, Russia was unable to achieve significant operational successes during the spring and summer offensive campaigns of 2026.
The Russian army is also suffering losses in equipment and ships of the Black Sea Fleet. Ukrainian strikes on oil refining infrastructure are placing additional pressure on the Russian economy.
Against the backdrop of mounting losses and difficulties in recruiting contract soldiers, Russian authorities may consider a new wave of mobilization.
Earlier, Meduza reported that Russian officials were discussing the possibility of carrying it out after the fall elections to the State Duma. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also noted that the Kremlin is considering various options for supporting a potential mobilization campaign.
Vladimir Putin last announced a partial mobilization in September 2022. At that time, the plan was to call up 300,000 reservists.
Since then, Moscow has primarily sought to meet its military needs through contract soldiers, offering high one-time payments, salaries, and tax breaks. However, according to Western media reports, the pace of voluntary enlistment has slowed recently.
At the same time, experts note that Russian society is growing increasingly weary of the war, but this does not mean an automatic willingness to protest against the Kremlin.
A March poll by the Levada Center showed that 67% of Russians consider peace talks with Ukraine necessary, while 24% supported continuing hostilities.
According to experts, however, war fatigue does not mean that Russians are ready to demand an end to the war on any terms.
“Russians are generally tired of the war and want it to end,” said Dr. Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute for Global Affairs at Syracuse University.
At the same time, he emphasized that war fatigue does not mean Russians are ready to protest against it.
Analysts suggest that Russia may need additional troops primarily to continue its offensive in the Donbas.
Russian leadership has repeatedly stated its intention to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, the advance of Russian troops in this direction remains slow and is accompanied by significant losses.
According to Andrew D’Agnieri, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, the Kremlin may be counting on the mobilization to increase troop numbers and ultimately achieve its objectives.
“If Putin decides to carry out a mobilization, he will do so because he sees an advantage in it on the battlefield,” the expert noted.
He added that Russia’s gains in the Donbas over the past few years have been extremely slow and costly, and the Kremlin may view mobilization as a way to increase troop numbers.
At the same time, experts believe that even a new wave of mobilization is unlikely to significantly change the course of the war. An increase in troop numbers alone does not guarantee Russia a breakthrough on the front lines.
Forbes reports on this.
As a reminder, Ukrainian forces have liberated 37 square kilometers of territory in southern Ukraine from Russian occupiers. Defense forces are continuing their offensive operations and plan to reach the 40-square-kilometer mark in the near future.
Over the past day, the Russian army lost another 1,370 soldiers in Ukraine. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the start of the full-scale war, Russia’s total personnel losses have already reached approximately 1,465,810 people.
On the front lines over the past day, August 14, there were 233 combat engagements between Ukrainian troops and Russian occupiers. The Russians actively used aircraft and drones: they carried out 71 airstrikes, dropped 241 guided bombs, and launched 10,626 kamikaze drones.
In Samara, Russia, a fire broke out at the “CSKB-Progress” facility following an attack. According to Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, the plant manufactures medium-class launch vehicles and unmanned space vehicles.
