The Russians may try to enter Zaporizhzhia
Dmytro Filatov, commander of the 1st Separate Assault Regiment, stated that this winter, Russian forces may attempt to enter Zaporizhzhia in small infantry groups. At the same time, the “South” Military Group stated that there is currently no reason to believe such a scenario is highly likely or that Russian troops will immediately enter the city.
Dmytro Filatov, commander of the 1st Separate Assault Regiment named after Dmytro Kotsyubailo and known by the call sign “Perun,” warned of a possible threat to Zaporizhzhia this winter. According to him, Russian troops may attempt to advance toward the city not in large columns, but in separate infantry groups.
Filatov spoke about this in an interview with the YouTube channel “Real Front.” His remarks drew attention because Zaporizhzhia is located approximately 30 kilometers from the current front line.
What the commander of the 1st OSHP said
Filatov believes that with the onset of winter, Russian troops may attempt to approach the city itself. According to him, this does not mean that the Russian army will immediately advance on Zaporizhzhia with a large force. He predicts possible infiltration attempts by small groups. “I think that this year, during the winter, we will observe the approach and entry into Zaporizhzhia itself—not of troops, but of individual groups. This is possible, and there is a very high probability of it happening,” Filatov stated.
The military official also suggested that the Russians might use various infantry groups to gradually close in on the city. “These will be infantry groups that will reach Zaporizhzhia. They’ll be separate groups, but they’ll get there,” he said.
According to Filatov, the direction toward Stepnogorsk and the areas along the Dnipro River could become particularly important for Russian forces. He attributes this to the terrain and the dense urban development of Zaporizhzhia itself. At the same time, the commander emphasized that this is specifically a possible scenario, not an indication that Russian troops are already preparing to storm the city.
The “South” Military Group denied the high likelihood of such a scenario
Following Filatov’s statement, reports began circulating in the media and on Telegram about a possible Russian advance into Zaporizhzhia this winter. The “South” Military Group stated that this portrayal of the situation is exaggerated. The group’s spokesperson, Anastasia Shevchenko, explained that attempts by small Russian groups to advance toward the city cannot be completely ruled out. However, she said there is currently no basis for claiming a high probability of a direct Russian military advance into Zaporizhzhia.
She noted that the front line is currently about 30 kilometers from the city. Ukrainian drones, as Shevchenko explained, make it possible to detect Russian troops while they are still on the outskirts. They are then targeted with fire. That is why, she said, it would be difficult for the enemy to cover such a distance unnoticed.
Russia Has Not Abandoned Its Plans for Zaporizhzhia
At the same time, the command does not claim that Russia has completely abandoned its plans for Zaporizhzhia. “The enemy has not abandoned its intentions to capture Zaporizhzhia, but at this time it does not have sufficient forces and resources to advance directly toward the city,” Shevchenko stated.
She also reported that the Ukrainian military currently sees no changes in the behavior of Russian troops that could indicate preparations for a direct assault on Zaporizhzhia. In other words, the threat from Russia remains, but the Ukrainian side is not currently observing any signs of preparations for a major attack specifically on the regional capital.
Russia Is Using Small Infantry Groups
At the same time, Russian troops are indeed attempting to infiltrate in small groups in certain areas along the Zaporizhzhia sector. Shevchenko explained that such tactics have been observed, in particular, near Mali Shcherbakiv, Stepove, and Shcherbakiv. According to her, Russian forces are attempting to advance in small infantry groups, but these attempts have so far been unsuccessful.
In the area of responsibility of the “South” Military Group, Russian units continue to suffer personnel losses. This is a crucial point in the current situation. Even if Russian forces cannot launch a major offensive, they can use small groups to search for weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense and attempt to advance gradually.
What’s Happening on the Zaporizhzhia Front
Russian troops continue offensive operations in several sectors of the Zaporizhzhia sector. They are paying particular attention to the Orikhiv area and settlements on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia. Earlier, Filatov also noted that the Russian command may shift priorities between different sectors of the front. In his assessment, Russia has now shifted some of its focus to the Donetsk sector, but this does not mean it has abandoned its plans for the Zaporizhzhia region.
According to the military official, the Russians may use the fall and winter months to attempt advances along other routes, particularly along the coast and through the territory of the former Kakhovka Reservoir. This is one of the reasons why he expects increased activity in this sector during the colder months. At the same time, other assessments of the situation indicate that Ukrainian defenses continue to hold back the Russian advance. In particular, there were earlier reports of Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhzhia sector, which forced Russian units to change their plans and redeploy reserves.
Thus, there are currently two key assessments of the situation. Commander of the 1st Operational-Strategic Group Dmytro Filatov acknowledges that this winter, isolated Russian infantry groups may attempt to reach Zaporizhzhia. At the same time, the “South” Military Group states that it currently sees no signs of preparations for a direct assault on the city and believes that Russia lacks sufficient forces and resources for such an advance. He made these remarks during an interview for the “Real Front” YouTube channel.
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