Australia may experience its wettest El Niño year on record
In 2026, Australia could see the highest annual rainfall on record during an El Niño event, even though this climate phenomenon is typically associated with droughts on the continent. Average rainfall across the country since the beginning of the year has already exceeded 400 mm, according to ABC News Australia.
By the end of August, a large band of clouds carrying moisture from the Indian Ocean is expected to pass over the southern two-thirds of Australia. Rain is initially expected in Western Australia and will later spread to South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and other eastern states. By the end of the month, 15 to 50 mm of precipitation is forecast for most of the country’s southeast and in parts of Western Australia.
In some towns in northern South Australia, August has already become the wettest on record. In particular, Arkaroo received 97 mm of rainfall, surpassing the previous record of 72 mm set in August 1973.
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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had previously forecast a mostly dry winter, but much of the country’s interior received more rainfall than usual. Zhi-Wen Chua, a senior climatologist at the bureau, explained that the waters of the central Indian Ocean are currently 1–2°C warmer than normal. Warmer water increases the moisture content in the atmosphere and creates conditions for weather systems that bring rain to Australia’s interior.
According to meteorologists, El Niño’s influence on precipitation typically weakens in the spring and nearly disappears in the summer. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a wet spring for the western half of Australia and the Northern Territory. For parts of Queensland and New South Wales, the likelihood of a wetter or drier season is nearly equal, while in some areas of Victoria and Tasmania, the probability of below-median rainfall reaches 80%.
The temperature scenario, on the other hand, is typical of an El Niño event: significant heat is expected in southern Australia this spring and summer. Models predict that average temperatures in some parts of southern Australia will be up to 3°C higher than pre-industrial levels in the coming months.
