The Kremlin is preparing to turn life in Europe into a living hell — Bloomberg
In recent months, Russia has been increasingly using sabotage, cyberattacks, arson, and other hybrid methods against European countries. According to Bloomberg, defense contractors and logistics infrastructure that support Ukraine are increasingly becoming the primary targets. European officials fear that, due to the growing risks, such attacks could ultimately result in civilian casualties.
Russia is intensifying its hybrid attacks on European countries that support Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, in recent months such incidents have become not only more frequent but also more dangerous. European officials and counterintelligence representatives interviewed by journalists believe that Moscow is gradually raising the stakes. Of particular concern is that some operations are now taking place right next to areas where civilians are present. According to Bloomberg’s sources, the question is no longer so much whether people might be harmed, but rather when it will happen.
The attacks are becoming increasingly bold
According to a representative of a NATO country, over the past two months, Russian intelligence agencies have been particularly active in targeting defense contractors and logistics facilities directly involved in supporting Ukraine. This goes beyond cyberattacks. European countries are recording suspicious arson cases, acts of sabotage, interference with critical infrastructure, airspace violations, and other incidents. Some of these incidents are not made public, especially if they involve cyberoperations or intelligence activities. Therefore, the actual scale of the problem may be greater than official reports suggest.
Bloomberg cites several examples that illustrate just how close such incidents are to the everyday lives of Europeans. On August 11, off the Romanian Black Sea coast, military divers destroyed two drones that were floating near a major energy project. Nine days later, Romania scrambled two F-16 fighter jets to destroy a maritime drone near the same gas platform. Hundreds of people were working at the site at the time.
In Germany, police had previously detected an armed drone near Leipzig Airport. And this week, NATO aircraft shot down another drone that had entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus. In all these cases, European officials have pointed to a possible Russian connection.
What Has Changed Over the Past Two Months
According to a representative of one NATO country, Moscow is now focusing more on targets that directly help Ukraine continue the war. These include defense plants, transportation routes, logistics companies, and other facilities involved in supplying Kyiv. At the same time, Russia is trying to act in a way that avoids direct responsibility. The perpetrators of these sabotage operations may be intermediaries or people hired for money. This approach allows the Kremlin to deny its involvement while simultaneously creating problems for European countries.
Bloomberg cites a drone attack near a train station close to the Ukrainian-Polish border as one of the most dangerous examples. The incident occurred last weekend while European and American officials were in the area. According to the agency’s sources, such incidents indicate Russia’s willingness to take greater risks.
Russia Responds to Ukrainian Strikes
European officials also link the intensification of Russian hybrid activities to Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory. Ukraine has recently been attacking Russian energy facilities, oil refineries, and logistics centers with increasing frequency. According to Western officials, these strikes are putting additional pressure on the Russian economy. That is why, they say, calls in Moscow to make Europe pay for its support of Kyiv are growing louder.
A Bloomberg source close to the Kremlin spoke even more bluntly. He stated that Russia wants to make life in Europe “a living hell” for its support of Ukraine, using asymmetric hybrid operations. At the same time, this statement represents the position of an anonymous source close to the Kremlin, not an official statement by the Russian authorities. That is why Bloomberg presents it as the source’s words, not as a confirmed plan by the Kremlin.
What Attacks Have Already Been Recorded in Europe
In recent years, the concept of hybrid warfare in Europe has expanded significantly. Whereas Russia was previously accused mainly of interfering in elections, conducting disinformation campaigns, and using migration as a tool of pressure, the focus is now increasingly on physical acts of sabotage. Such incidents include arson, damage to critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, attempts to disrupt transportation systems, and airspace violations. Attacks on defense industry enterprises pose a particular problem.
In Germany, according to Bloomberg, many arms manufacturers regularly face cyberattacks. After the arson attack on the home of Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger in 2024, Western intelligence agencies warned of a possible Russian plot to assassinate him. Following this, the company stepped up security, and Papperger himself now travels with enhanced security. Another German company, Hensoldt—a manufacturer of radars and sensors—is also strengthening security at its plants. There, they are increasing the number of cameras, drone surveillance systems, and other means of monitoring the premises.
Poland has also found itself among the main targets
Bloomberg pays particular attention to Poland. The country is one of the main routes for delivering military aid to Ukraine, so its transportation and logistics infrastructure is of particular importance. Cyberattacks have been recorded in Poland against water supply facilities, power plants, and hospitals. Earlier, a railway line between Warsaw and the Ukrainian border was damaged. Polish authorities linked this incident to Russian intelligence services.
In August, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called a fire at WB Electronics, one of Europe’s largest drone manufacturers, an “act of sabotage.” However, no direct link between the fire and Russia was publicly established. On September 17, Tusk also stated in the Polish parliament that, according to intelligence reports, Russia may be preparing new hybrid attacks against countries that support Ukraine. He warned of a possible increase in provocations this fall and winter.
Europe Fears an Accidental Escalation
One of the main challenges for European countries is that hybrid attacks often fall below the threshold of an overt armed attack. For example, a cyberattack or sabotage at a factory does not in itself mean the start of a war between states. But if such an operation results in casualties or serious damage to a critical facility, the situation could change dramatically.
James Everard, former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, called this a “war without a battle.” According to him, open societies may be vulnerable to such operations because the adversary exploits freedom of movement, open infrastructure, and access to information. European officials also fear a miscalculation. Russia may be testing how far it can go without a direct military response from NATO. If such an operation results in civilian casualties or an accidental strike on Alliance territory, the risk of further escalation will increase significantly.
NATO and the EU Are Seeking a Response
European countries are already stepping up security for critical infrastructure, defense industries, and airspace. NATO is also strengthening its capabilities on the Alliance’s eastern flank. At the same time, there is still no common strategy to counter all types of hybrid attacks. Countries have different capabilities and rules, and intelligence agencies cannot publicly disclose certain information.
On September 16, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed creating a European mechanism to respond to hybrid threats. This involves coordinating the actions of EU countries in response to drone attacks, sabotage, and cyberattacks. The main problem, however, remains the same: European governments must respond to such attacks while preventing the conflict from escalating uncontrollably into an open war between Russia and NATO.
Has Moscow Achieved Its Goal?
According to Bloomberg, Russia’s campaign has not yet forced Europe to abandon its support for Ukraine. On the contrary, high-profile incidents have become one of the arguments in favor of increasing defense spending, strengthening counterintelligence, and enhancing coordination among countries. For example, following the incident near Leipzig, Germany confirmed plans to provide Ukraine with additional missiles for the Iris-T air defense systems. Berlin is also preparing to supply Kyiv with thousands of attack drones.
Therefore, European officials are not just talking about protecting individual businesses or facilities. They are discussing the long-term ability of countries to withstand a campaign in which there is no clear front line. Bloomberg notes that Moscow appears to be trying to identify vulnerabilities in European security and test NATO’s response. The more frequently such incidents occur and the closer they come to civilians, the higher the risk of a serious mistake or direct escalation.
