Europe is forecast to have a warmer-than-normal winter in 2026–2027
The winter of 2026–2027 in Europe may be warmer than the long-term average. At the same time, forecasters do not rule out isolated periods of cold weather.
European meteorologists have already received the first indications regarding the upcoming winter season. According to the latest Copernicus seasonal forecast, released on September 10, models indicate above-average temperatures across virtually all of Europe throughout the winter.
Experts emphasize that this refers specifically to a seasonal trend, not a day-by-day weather forecast. Seasonal models provide an average picture over several months, so they do not rule out short-term cold spells, frosts, or snowfalls.
In addition to temperature, Copernicus forecasts a wetter-than-normal winter for much of Europe. However, this trend is not uniform across the entire continent: the heaviest precipitation is expected in the central and western regions, while the southern and northern parts of Europe may see different conditions.
One of the main factors meteorologists are highlighting is a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.
On September 3, the World Meteorological Organization reported that the phenomenon has already formed and is expected to intensify to a very strong phase in the coming months. According to the organization’s assessment, the probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027 is close to 100%.
El Niño alters atmospheric circulation and can affect temperature and precipitation patterns in various parts of the world. At the same time, meteorologists caution that the phenomenon’s effects vary by region, and the fact that it is highly intense does not allow for predicting the weather in a specific city on a specific date.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, in its September 10 update, also noted an intensification of the phenomenon. According to its assessment, the probability of a similarly very strong phase in the fall and winter of 2026–2027 exceeds 90%. Models also show a 75% probability that readings will reach a historic high in October–December.
Ukraine is located on the eastern edge of Europe, so the general trend of the continental forecast does not automatically apply to Ukrainian territory. El Niño’s impact on our weather is also indirect—through changes in global atmospheric circulation.
Source: Copernicus
Weather in Ukraine on September 16: It will be warm, but a cold snap is already setting in.
As a reminder, Indian summer will return to Ukraine as early as this week.
