Pre-election polls in Hungary indicate Orbán's defeat

The latest pre-election polls in Hungary point to a potential historic shift in power: Péter Magyar’s “Tisza” party could secure a constitutional majority. 

The BBC reports this, citing data from two leading research centers.

According to forecasts, the situation looks as follows:

• Median poll (April 7–11): “Tisza” is projected to win 57.1% of the vote, translating to 135 seats in parliament (more than the two-thirds threshold). Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is projected to win only 37.1%.

• 21 Research Centre poll (April 8–11): Magyar’s party could receive 55% of the vote and 132 seats, while Fidesz could get 38%.

These figures are not exit polls, but they correlate with the first official results, where “Tisza” is already showing a clear lead in the number of seats in parliament. Analysts note that the record turnout of over 77% was a decisive factor that helped the opposition mobilize the protest electorate in cities. If these projections are confirmed by the final tally, Hungary will see a new political direction for the first time in 16 years, which will significantly alter the balance of power within the EU and Budapest’s stance toward Russia. Official results are expected later tonight.

Meanwhile, the first results of the parliamentary elections in Hungary have emerged. According to preliminary data after 6.56% of ballots have been counted, the opposition party “Tisza” is pulling ahead in terms of the number of seats.

As a reminder, for the first time in many years, the opposition in Hungary has a chance to defeat Orbán.

The opposition party “Tisza” has a chance to win two-thirds of the seats in the Hungarian parliament in the April 12 elections, which would allow it to amend the constitution and key laws.