President Lula leads in poll ahead of Brazil’s elections — The Rio Times

In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 46.2% support in the first round of the presidential election, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has 43.1%. The Rio Times reported the results of the latest AtlasIntel pre-election poll.

The figures are given for valid votes, excluding blank and invalid ballots and undecided voters. Renan Santos came third in the survey with 5.3%. Augusto Cury received 2.1%, Ronaldo Caiado 1.8%, Romeu Zema 0.9%, and other candidates collectively 0.5%.

Second round within the margin of error

In a simulated runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, AtlasIntel recorded a tie, with 50% of valid votes each. According to Poder360, when all responses are counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.7% and Lula has 47.6%. Another 4.8% of respondents said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot or were undecided. The difference of 0.1 percentage points is within the stated statistical margin of error.

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In other runoff scenarios, Lula leads Romeu Zema by 53.5% to 46.5%, Ronaldo Caiado by 51.4% to 48.6%, Augusto Cury by 56.1% to 43.9%, and Renan Santos by 61.6% to 38.4%.

Survey parameters and election schedule

AtlasIntel surveyed 5,005 voters on September 23–28, 2026. The stated margin of error is one percentage point, and the survey is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-04391/2026. The first round of the election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. If no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes, the second round will take place on October 25, 2026.