Russia may be preparing a hybrid campaign against NATO and the Baltic states, according to an expert
Russia's accusations that the Baltic states allegedly participated in strikes on Russian territory may be part of Moscow's preparations for a possible opening of a second front against NATO countries.
This opinion was expressed by military analyst Denis Popovich on Radio NV.
According to the expert, the risks are growing, and scenarios of a hybrid conflict against the Alliance are becoming more likely.
“And this could happen in the near future. There is a lot of talk about this right now, and the conditions are in place. Starting with Trump’s policy, which makes it clear that the U.S. will not participate or defend its NATO allies if necessary. And this aligns with Putin’s desire to effectively dismantle NATO and undermine the unity of the EU,” the expert stated.
Popovich noted that a window of opportunity is currently opening for the Kremlin, one that could last until political changes occur in the U.S.
According to him, following potential elections, the influence of certain political forces in the U.S. may shift, which will affect the balance in relations with allies.
The expert emphasized that Russia may be considering hybrid operations against the Baltic states and other NATO countries, including Poland, Sweden, and Finland.
“What was the Russian Federation’s annexation of Crimea? Were there really many troops involved? There were no tank formations, no missile strikes. It was a special operation involving Russian special forces and with the help of elements that provided support on Crimean territory. Such a situation could repeat itself in the Baltic states. That is one scenario. The second scenario, which could unfold at any moment, is a drone strike on the territory of one of the Baltic states. And not just the Baltics—it could be Finland, Sweden, or Poland,” he noted.
According to Popovich, the risks for European countries are growing due to a combination of military and political factors, and Russia may use disinformation and provocations as a tool to pressure NATO.
Russia has launched large-scale nuclear exercises to demonstrate its strength to Ukraine’s allies, increase pressure on NATO, and divert attention from its own failures on the front lines. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation officially announced the start of large-scale military exercises involving strategic nuclear forces, which will take place from May 19 to 21, 2026.
Ukraine reacted sharply to the joint nuclear exercises between Russia and Belarus, citing violations of international treaties and a threat to global security. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that Moscow is effectively turning Belarus into a nuclear staging ground near NATO’s borders.
