Russia will set its budget deficit for 2027 at 2% of GDP, or 4.8 trillion rubles
The Russian federal budget for 2027 is once again expected to run a deficit. According to preliminary estimates, it will amount to about 2% of GDP, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on September 17.
This figure is nearly double the 1.2% of GDP forecast set out in the current three-year budget. According to The Moscow Times, in monetary terms, the deficit could amount to about 4.8 trillion rubles. The final budget parameters are to be determined by the end of September, when the government plans to submit the draft to the State Duma.
Putin noted that the calculations are based on a conservative oil price benchmark of about $50 per barrel. In 2026, the corresponding figure is $59 per barrel.
At the same time, the Russian budget deficit has already exceeded the initial projections for 2026. In the first eight months, it reached 5.8 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP, while the budget law for the entire year provides for 3.8 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP.
Defense spending remains one of the key factors driving the budget burden. The Russian Federation’s 2026 budget allocates approximately 12.9 trillion rubles for national defense, accounting for nearly 30% of all federal budget expenditures.
Some Russian analysts expect the actual deficit in 2026 to exceed the level set by law. In particular, Sberbank’s Center for Macroeconomic Research forecasts a deficit of 7.3 trillion rubles, while its estimate for the 2027 deficit is 6.9 trillion rubles.
In its baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia also anticipates a gradual reduction of the structural primary budget deficit to zero starting in 2029. At the same time, the regulator notes that these figures will be further refined in light of the draft federal budget for 2027–2029.
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