US concludes operation against ISIS in Iraq — The National

On September 30, the United States officially concludes operations against the Islamic State group (ISIS) in Iraq, ending the 12-year Operation Inherent Resolve mission. As The National reports, the campaign began in August 2014 with US airstrikes on ISIS targets as militants were seizing territory in Syria and northern Iraq.

Dozens of countries joined the operation. Their military personnel and aircraft supported Iraqi and Kurdish forces and later partner forces in Syria. ISIS’s self-proclaimed “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq ceased to exist, while the group itself, according to the publication’s assessment, has turned into a low-intensity insurgent movement.

Losses and the risk of sleeper cells becoming active

According to the Pentagon, 123 US service members were killed during the mission, while another 499 were wounded. The coalition estimated the number of ISIS members killed at more than 80,000.

Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani, quoted by Reuters, said that after reports of the international coalition’s official withdrawal from Iraq, he noticed activity by ISIS sleeper cells. According to him, the absence of US intelligence, logistical support and drones could give militants an opportunity to regroup.

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Iran’s influence and armed groups

The withdrawal of US forces removes one of the main targets for Iran-backed groups, which could potentially reduce reciprocal attacks between them and the United States. At the same time, the end of the mission means the loss of one of the factors deterring Iranian influence in Iraq, where Tehran has for years developed ties with political forces, security structures and the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Analyst Michael Knights said that Iran retains an interest in Iraq, while US attention to the country is weakening. Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes that the US withdrawal may deprive pro-Iranian groups of an argument for retaining weapons, but at the same time creates new vulnerabilities, in particular for Kurds in the Erbil area due to the loss of air defense systems that protected US forces.

Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi had previously set September 30 as the initial deadline for the disarmament of Iran-backed formations, but the deadline was moved to the end of June 2027.