Statistical tie between Lula and Bolsonaro in Brazil — Daily Maverick
In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro have statistically identical results in simulated runoff scenarios. According to Daily Maverick, the lead of each candidate in one of the two polls does not exceed the margin of error.
Quaest results
A Quaest poll showed that Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, could receive 42% support in a runoff against Lula's 41%. In the previous survey, released on September 14, Bolsonaro had 42%, while Lula had 40%.
In the first-round scenario, Quaest recorded 37% support for Lula and 33% for Bolsonaro. Augusto Curi could receive 6%, while Ronaldo Caiado could receive 4%. The poll was conducted among 2,004 people from September 17 to 20; the margin of error is two percentage points.
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BTG Pactual/Nexus data
Another BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed 46% support for Lula and 45% for Bolsonaro in a possible runoff. In the survey dated September 14, the figures were 47% and 46%, respectively.
Under the first-round scenario in the Nexus poll, Lula would receive 40%, Bolsonaro 37%, Curi 6%, and Caiado 5%. The survey covered 2,006 respondents from September 18 to 20, and the margin of error was also two percentage points. The first round is scheduled for October 4, and the second for October 25, if no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes.
