CIA allegedly warns of possible Russian operation in the Mediterranean — France 24

Several Mediterranean countries allegedly received a warning from the CIA about a possible imminent hybrid operation by Russia, the aggressor state. According to France 24 English, the Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported that the alleged plan involves launching drones from Russian vessels disguised as commercial ships toward Spain, Italy and France.

Possible use of Gerbera drones

Citing Lithuanian officials familiar with CIA data, El Mundo writes about the possible use of Gerbera drones. They are smaller and lighter than the Shahed or Geran systems used in the war against Ukraine.

According to the outlet's assessment, a commercial vessel could carry several such devices, and their flight to the Spanish, Italian or French coast would take from one hour and 15 minutes to two hours. Due to their small size, these drones are unable to carry a significant warhead. The likely aim of the operation could be to achieve an element of surprise or cause minor damage, El Mundo notes.

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French President Emmanuel Macron told TF1 and France 2 that he was unaware of such Russian plans and that the CIA had not informed the French authorities about a possible attack.

Experts on the psychological effect of threats

Mark Lacy, a specialist in Russian hybrid warfare at Lancaster University, suggested that the dissemination of information about a possible operation could be an element of cognitive and psychological warfare. In his view, Moscow may have deliberately signaled that it was expanding its hybrid campaign to the Mediterranean even without intending to implement this plan. He described the aim of this approach as creating uncertainty, doubt and panic.

Mario Baumann, an expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, considers the scenario of a hybrid attack on the Mediterranean entirely possible. He noted that Russia may choose directions where the threat is least expected, while the attention of many European states is focused on Poland, Germany and the Baltic states. Experts also described drones as an effective tool for increasing anxiety, particularly through possible flights near airports or threats to underwater infrastructure.