South Africa forecasts rise in local coalitions to 110 — Daily Maverick
In South Africa, following the local elections on November 4, 2026, the number of coalition governments may increase from 88 to 110. Political scientist Susan Booysen, an emeritus professor at the University of the Witwatersrand, presented this forecast at The Gathering 2026 event in Cape Town, reports Daily Maverick.
Election forecast
According to Booysen’s assessment, the number of coalitions in municipalities may rise from 71 to 85, in district authorities from 13 to 18, and in metropolitan areas from five to seven. She links this trend to a further decline in support for the African National Congress (ANC) and the possible retention or growth of support for the Democratic Alliance (DA), which usually does not receive 50% of the vote.
According to the political scientist, the ANC currently controls 105 of 205 local councils. At the same time, voters who do not want to support the main political rivals may vote for small and micro-parties or abstain from voting. Booysen particularly mentioned ANC supporters’ reluctance to switch to the DA.
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The problem of instability
Booysen stated that small parties, thanks to their role in forming majorities, gain influence that exceeds the level of their electoral support. Large parties, seeking to form coalitions, often grant them positions of power, including mayoral posts. In her view, such arrangements are often unstable and complicate the work of local authorities.
She recalled that after the 2000 elections, the country had 29 coalition governments at the local level; after the 2006 elections, 31; in 2011, 37; in 2016, 27; and after the 2021 elections, between 82 and 88, depending on the counting methodology.
According to an Ipsos poll, 54% of respondents support cooperation between parties in local government, while 28% oppose it. According to Booysen, proposed mechanisms to stabilize coalitions, including limiting the representation of parties that received no more than 1% of the vote, will not be introduced before the November elections: parliament will not adopt the coalition bill in time, and the draft White Paper on local government will also not be ready.
