Russia is compiling lists of employees exempt from mobilization
Russia’s largest companies have begun compiling lists of employees they plan to exempt from potential mobilization. This was reported by the publication “VChK-OGPU,” which released documents from one of Russia’s largest metallurgical enterprises. At the same time, the Kremlin continues to deny that it is preparing a new mass draft.
Major Russian companies have begun preparing lists for military registration and enlistment offices of their employees who are to be exempted from mobilization. This is reported by “VChK-OGPU.” As an example, the publication cites internal documents from Evraz—one of Russia’s largest steel producers. The company employs over 70,000 people.
According to a published excerpt from the order, the exemption lists are to include company employees who are Russian citizens and are in the reserve. A copy of the document is to be submitted to the military commissariat in Nizhny Tagil, where the company is located.
Employees included on the list are asked to sign a form indicating their “consent” to the reservation decision. However, as the document indicates, employees born in 2002–2003 were not included on the list.
The mere fact that such lists are being prepared does not mean that a new mobilization has already been announced in Russia. However, reserving employees is necessary to determine whom companies can keep on the job in the event of a draft.
The Kremlin Denies a New Mobilization
Russian authorities continue to assert that they are not preparing a new wave of mobilization. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov called reports of a possible new draft “fake news.” Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev also dismissed such claims.
State Duma Deputy Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulov explained that the Russian army is allegedly not ready to simultaneously “clothe, shoe, train,” and arm one million new soldiers. At the same time, reports of possible preparations for a new draft are appearing not only on Russian Telegram channels.
According to sources at The Wall Street Journal familiar with intelligence reports, the Russian military conducted exercises in certain regions to test the readiness of training grounds to receive new recruits, as well as their equipment and supplies. In particular, such exercises were reportedly held in the Kaliningrad region. There, they tested how the system for conscripting local residents might function.
What’s Being Said About a Possible Mobilization After the Elections
Western intelligence agencies suggest that Russia may revisit the issue of large-scale mobilization after the State Duma elections, scheduled for September 18–20. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also stated that new waves of mobilization could take place in Russia after the elections. According to his forecast, this could involve hundreds of thousands of people by the end of this year and the same number next year.
At the same time, these estimates remain projections. So far, the Russian authorities have not officially announced the start of a new mass mobilization. Separately, Russian “Z-channels” circulated claims this summer about a possible draft of up to 1.2 million people as early as October. There is no confirmation of this figure.
What Is Happening to Those Mobilized in 2022
The mobilization decree, which Vladimir Putin signed in September 2022, remains in effect to this day. During that campaign, approximately 300,000 people were drafted into the Russian army. German expert Janis Kluge from the Institute for International Security Problems estimated the number of those mobilized who remained on the front lines based on data on monthly payments.
According to his calculations, in 2024, there were about 246,000 such soldiers remaining. In 2025, the number had dropped to approximately 168,000. If this trend continued, the number of soldiers mobilized in 2022 who are still on active duty today could have fallen to just over 100,000.
These estimates show why the issue of replenishing the Russian army remains a priority for the Kremlin. At the same time, the preparation of lists of reserved personnel does not in itself prove that a new mobilization has already been launched. This is reported by Russian media.
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