Plasma ejection from the Sun may reach Earth on October 9 — RMF24

A coronal mass ejection from the Sun, which accompanied an M1.4-class flare, may reach Earth on October 9. According to the forecast, the phenomenon could cause at least a weak geomagnetic storm, and under favorable conditions, the aurora may be visible at lower latitudes, including in the sky over Poland, RMF24 reports.

When the plasma is expected to arrive

The ejection occurred in the active region of the Sun AR4549, which is located almost directly opposite Earth. This increases the likelihood that part of the solar matter will interact with the planet's magnetosphere. A coronal mass ejection is a large cloud of plasma that the Sun ejects during powerful flares.

According to the WSA-ENLIL model of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the leading edge of the plasma cloud may arrive at Earth at around 05:00 Coordinated Universal Time on October 9. The Belgian Solar Influences Data Analysis Center estimated the plasma speed at approximately 560 kilometers per second.

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What the aurora depends on

Specialists expect conditions for a weak geomagnetic storm to form during the day on October 9; moderate activity is possible in some areas. The strength of the phenomenon and its geographical extent will depend not only on the speed and direction of the ejection, but also on the orientation of the plasma's magnetic field when it contacts Earth's magnetosphere.

Solar activity may continue in the following days: region AR4549 has already caused another M1.8-class flare. In addition, other Earth-facing regions are showing increased activity. A period of stronger influence from fast solar wind is also forecast for October 11.