Kazakhstan cuts oil production forecast to 96 million tonnes — OilPrice
Kazakhstan will be unable to significantly increase oil production to compensate for a possible shortage on the global market due to declining output and limited export capacity. This is reported by OilPrice, citing industry analysts.
In the first eight months of 2026, the country produced 61.7 million tonnes of oil, 8.4% less than the initial plan for this period. The Kazakh government lowered its annual production forecast from 100 million to 96 million tonnes. In 2025, production amounted to 99.6 million tonnes.
Maintenance at Karachaganak
One factor limiting production capacity was scheduled maintenance at the Karachaganak oil and gas field, which began in September. Kazakh industry expert Nurlan Zhumagulov, quoted by the Kazinform agency, said that work at one of the country's largest fields would continue to restrain production.
More than 80% of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports go to the Russian port of Novorossiysk via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). According to OilPrice, the pipeline and terminal facilities in Novorossiysk have repeatedly come under attack by Ukrainian drones in recent months. The latest disruption, according to the publication, occurred on September 8 after a strike on a CPC oil loading facility.
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Limited alternative routes
Kazakhstan is seeking to increase shipments across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, from where oil can be transported westward via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. However, the crude must be transported across the Caspian by tankers, and the capacity of this route for Kazakh oil is limited.
In 2025, the CPC transported around 65 million tonnes of Kazakh oil. By comparison, Azerbaijani officials estimate the annual capacity of the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan route for Kazakh oil at 2.2 million tonnes. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are also exploring the possibility of supplying up to 5 million additional tonnes of oil to Europe through the Baku–Supsa pipeline.
Analyst Joseph Shumunov told the Astana Times that building a Trans-Caspian pipeline would require time, political will and funding, while Kazakhstan does not have sufficient resources to implement such a project on its own. According to his data, the EU imported 52.4 million tonnes of Kazakh oil in 2024, making Kazakhstan the bloc's third-largest external supplier of crude.
