Oil price forecasts rise due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — OilPrice
Analysts have significantly raised their oil price forecasts for 2026 as expectations of a rapid restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fade. As OilPrice reports, a September Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts projects an average Brent price of $89.05 per barrel, compared with $85.08 in the August forecast.
Updated Brent and WTI estimates
The average forecast for US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose from $80.20 to $83.90 per barrel. Survey participants' estimates for Brent ranged from $77.27 to $97.60 per barrel.
Some Reuters analysts surveyed do not expect a full restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the near term. HSBC incorporates only a gradual improvement in shipping into its forecast and considers the situation in the strait to be structurally constrained. The bank noted that volumes of liquid hydrocarbon shipments remain significantly below the approximately 19–20 million barrels per day that passed through this waterway before the war. DBS Bank also does not expect the conflict to end within the next three to six months.
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Persian Gulf exports and Chinese demand
At the same time, producers in the Persian Gulf countries have managed to restore a significant share of exports. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, total oil exports from the region reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly in line with the 2025 average. This estimate covers all exports from the Persian Gulf, not only visible tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and includes shipments by vessels with their transponders switched off.
Chinese demand is another factor of uncertainty. FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects cut their forecasts for Chinese oil imports in the fourth quarter by around 400,000 barrels per day, to 9.2–9.3 million barrels. This is linked to Brent rising above $100, higher freight costs, and reduced availability of cheap Iranian and Venezuelan oil. In August, China's imports recovered to nearly 9 million barrels per day after a decade low in June, but remained significantly below last year's average level.
Supply expectations
According to Reuters sources, OPEC+ is unlikely to increase supplies quickly: eight members of the group are expected to leave their current production targets unchanged. Most survey participants also do not forecast the oil market returning to a surplus before 2027.
