US forecasts Social Security benefit indexation of 3.5–3.6% in 2027
In the United States, the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits in 2027 may range from 3.5% to 3.6%. This forecast, based on new U.S. government inflation data, was published by CNBC Top News. If the estimates prove accurate, it will be the largest annual increase in the past three years.
Analysts’ estimates
Mary Johnson, an independent analyst specializing in Social Security and Medicare policy, estimates a possible increase of 3.5%. In August, she forecast an adjustment of 3.4%. According to her, fluctuations in oil prices may affect the final figure.
The nonpartisan organization The Senior Citizens League also forecasts a 3.5% increase, although a month earlier it expected growth of 3.6%. According to its calculations, at this level of adjustment, the average monthly benefit will increase by $67.90.
AARP, meanwhile, expects an increase of 3.6%. The organization said this would add an average of $75 per month to the benefit of a retired worker. In August, AARP forecast growth of 3.5%.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
When the final figure will be announced
The U.S. Social Security Administration usually announces the official adjustment amount for 2027 in October. Inflation data for one more month will still be taken into account for the calculation.
The figure is determined by the percentage change in inflation in the third quarter compared with the same period of the previous year. The calculation is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Over the past 12 months, it rose by 3.5%, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The broader Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4% year-on-year in August.
In 2026, approximately 75 million recipients of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits received an increase of 2.8%. Over the past decade, the adjustment ranged from 0% in 2016 to 8.7% in 2023, while the average figure over that period was about 3.1%.
