US holiday retail sales could exceed $1 trillion — CNBC
US holiday retail sales in 2026 could exceed $1 trillion for the first time. According to a Bain & Company forecast, their volume will rise by 4.5%, CNBC reports. Analysts expect sales at brick-and-mortar stores to account for about 70% of the increase, although the share of e-commerce continues to grow.
Inflation limits real growth
Bain & Company noted that most of the spending growth will be driven by higher prices. Therefore, the increase in the number of goods sold will be smaller than nominal sales values suggest. This particularly applies to food and beverages, furniture, health and personal care products: sales volumes in these categories are expected to decline.
Consumers received additional funds through tax refunds, which increased by $43 billion this year, or 17% compared with last year. At the same time, Bank of America estimates that higher gasoline prices have already absorbed about half of this increase.
The forecast was released after the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell in September to its lowest level since 2014. Respondents expressed concern about inflation and labor market prospects.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
Shoppers will look for bargains
Deloitte also expects an active holiday season and forecasts retail sales of $1.7 trillion. The company believes shoppers will more often seek discounts, switch brands and stores, and use promotions to control spending.
According to Adobe, spending through buy now, pay later services could reach a record $21.3 billion. AlixPartners reports that consumers are forming smaller shopping baskets but visiting stores more often, especially grocery stores, and are also shifting from premium goods to retailers’ private-label brands.
Artificial intelligence will increasingly be used to search for products and compare prices. PwC notes that 29% of consumers plan to use AI during holiday shopping, compared with 22% last year. At the same time, most people do not yet make purchases directly through AI platforms.
