“We still do not fully understand who is being targeted by today’s searches.
Is it the person who ‘does everything I tell him to do’—as President Zelensky once said about Andriy Yermak—or the head of Ukraine’s negotiating delegation in Geneva? Depending on who is being investigated, we can draw conclusions about how the situation will develop.
If the search is just targeting the President’s close associate, this indicates a move to balance power, strengthening anti-corruption authorities at the expense of the presidential branch, or applying pressure to force changes in government actions, including the handling of the ongoing struggle against corruption. This struggle will continue until a new balance is found.
Essentially, the outcome could either weaken or reinforce the presidential vertical, affecting both domestic and foreign policy.
If the target is the head of the negotiating delegation, and if foreign partners—for example, the U.S.—are involved, then the confrontation will persist until Ukraine adjusts its policies. In that case, replacing one Yermak with another could serve to balance the interests of the President and Ukraine’s key donors.
It is also possible that internal and external interests coincided situationally. In any case, this is unprecedented. I cannot recall a case where a sitting head of the Presidential Office (previously called the Presidential Administration) was subject to searches.
This will impact negotiations, funding, and support for Ukraine, and it poses serious political risks for President Zelensky—though much depends on how he responds to this challenge.”
— Ruslan Bortnik
