On Sunday, 7 December, Russia carried out a series of strikes on the dam of the Pechenihy Reservoir in the Kharkiv region, which is yet another indication of the enemy’s deliberate campaign aimed at destroying Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. This attack raised concerns regarding two key aspects of the region’s security: the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ military logistics and the stability of Kharkiv’s water supply.
The nature of the chosen target — the Pechenihy dam — is a sign of a high level of strategic planning by the aggressor, as this facility has dual significance. The problem is that it is both the largest source of fresh water for the city — often called “the Kharkiv Sea” by locals — and a vital part of the network of ground lines of communication.
The strikes caused serious damage to the road surface on the dam. Although the dam has not, according to preliminary reports, been completely destroyed, the need to protect and restore it is extremely urgent. The situation is further complicated by panic spreading among part of the population. In Kharkiv’s online chats, “horror stories” have already begun circulating, claiming that huge volumes of water will soon flood the “first capital”.
Why is Russia attacking the Pechenihy dam, what is the real threat posed by such actions, and why should residents not fall for the scare-mongering in city chats? UA.News political commentator Mykyta Trachuk looked into the issue.
A Campaign of attrition: The purpose of the strikes on the Pechenihy Dam
Russian strikes on the Pechenihy dam represent an example of a campaign aimed at isolating the battlefield and destroying the enemy’s ground lines of communication that supply frontline units. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that this attack is another step in a deliberate campaign of strikes on Ukrainian logistics focused on the Kharkiv region.
The key military goal is to disrupt logistical support for the Defence Forces in critical sectors of the north-eastern front. The Pechenihy Reservoir dam is not just a hydrotechnical structure, but a multifunctional logistical hub. Damage to the dam’s road surface and adjacent bridge structures directly affects connections with three main sectors: Vovchansk, Kupiansk, and Velykyi Burluk.
The commander of the 429th separate Achilles Unmanned Systems Regiment believes that it is fundamentally important for the enemy to “cut off the ability to logistically supply the group of troops performing the task of defending Vovchansk and the state border line with Russia”. The strikes on the dam resulted in the suspension of traffic and the closure of two important territorial roads: T-21-11 (Chuhuiv — Pechenihy — Velykyi Burluk) and T-21-04 (Kharkiv — Vovchansk — Chuhunivka checkpoint). The latter is particularly important, as it runs only 16 km from the front line.
Disabling these key arteries forces the Ukrainian command to use longer and less protected detour routes. This increases logistical costs and stretches supply chains.
It is important to stress that the 7 December attack was neither accidental nor a one-off strike. Russian forces have repeatedly targeted the Pechenihy dam in the past. Russia clearly regards this facility as a high-priority target whose destruction would help achieve local advantages in the north-east. The attack can be seen as a preparatory phase intended to create conditions for a further advance of ground forces.
Is there a threat to the population of Kharkiv and the region?
In answering this question, it is important to clearly distinguish between different types of threats: the acute (flooding) and the long-term (water supply). The destruction of hydrotechnical structures always carries risks. However, as of now, the situation has luckily not resulted in an immediate humanitarian catastrophe — though it has exposed a critical vulnerability in Kharkiv’s life-support systems.
The main concern among the local population is whether the damage to the dam threatens massive flooding of nearby settlements, including the city of Kharkiv. Based on information from hydrologists and the regional military administration, it can be concluded that there is no direct threat of a catastrophe.
It should be noted that the damage was inflicted primarily on the infrastructure on the crest of the dam, including the road surface, whereas the “body” of the dam has retained its structural integrity. There is currently no basis for evacuating residents or any threat to the regional centre.
It is worth recalling that back in September 2022, when strikes destroyed the dam’s upper sluice gate, residents of the settlement of Pechenihy were warned about possible flooding of homes. However, the latest strike did not cause similar consequences.
Thus, the likely objective of the attack was focused on the logistical component (the road surface) and on exerting sustained pressure on the infrastructure, rather than immediately causing flooding. To achieve that, the Russians would have had to carry out far more strikes on the dam, which they did not do.
However, the greatest challenge for Kharkiv lies in the threat to the stability of its water supply (which already experiences regular problems). The Pechenihy Reservoir is the main source of fresh water for the million-strong city — providing around 70% of the total volume. The threat arises not only in the event of the dam’s complete destruction, but also from the systematic damage to auxiliary hydrotechnical structures that are crucial for regulating water levels, operating water intake systems, filtration, and so on.
Strikes on water-supply infrastructure are part of an “infrastructure war” aimed at reducing the city’s viability and increasing psychological pressure on the population. The goal is not only military impact, but also attrition through the potential loss of essential services. Constant shelling creates a cumulative effect that raises the risk of future collapse or damage to the sluices. Therefore, continuous engineering monitoring and enhanced protection of the infrastructure are essential.
Why people should not believe the “scare stories”
It is worth noting an interesting fact: almost immediately after the strikes on the dam, “scare stories” began spreading in local Kharkiv chats and channels claiming that the city could soon be flooded due to the dam’s destruction and breach. This phenomenon was one of the main reasons for writing this analysis. Residents, especially older people, tend to forward such panic-inducing messages to each other, thereby increasing the already high stress levels among Kharkiv’s population.
This is far from the first time such behaviour has occurred. Many similar cases can be recalled. Such messages circulated as far back as autumn 2022, when Russians were striking the Pechenihy dam.
Exactly the same claims were spread regarding a hypothetical breach of the Kyiv HPP dam, the Kremenchuk HPP dam, and even about possible Russian nuclear strikes on Ukraine on Victory Day (every year). Many more such examples can be found.
It is hard to say whether this is part of the enemy’s information-psychological operations. It might be, or it might not. Human nature is such that people fear the unknown and become anxious during crises when stress hormones overpower all others. It is no coincidence that people have long said: “Fear makes the wolf bigger than he is.”
It is important to understand that threats from such strikes do indeed exist and are very serious. However, they are often greatly exaggerated or have nothing to do with the real situation in specific cases.
Therefore, there is no need to react to apocalyptic messages in chats or anonymous local channels: at best, they are posted by overly emotional citizens who are themselves stressed; at worst — by Russian bots intentionally spreading panic. The best response is to stay calm, assess the situation rationally, read what official sources are reporting, and look for expert opinions.
In summary Russia’s strikes on the Pechenihy Reservoir dam are an example of a strategy combining military attrition with infrastructure terror. There is indeed a direct military rationale for such attacks, as they can disrupt the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ logistics in this area. At the same time, enemy strikes on the dam pose challenges for nearby settlements and for Kharkiv. However, there is currently no immediate threat of flooding, and evacuation is not necessary.
The real danger lies in the creation of a long-term water supply crisis. The Pechenihy Reservoir is the main source of the city’s water. Therefore, any further damage to the hydrotechnical complex or systematic shelling of the dam creates risks of destabilising the million-strong metropolis.
Ensuring the resilience of the Pechenihy hydrological complex is essential not only for the functioning of Kharkiv, but also for the situation on the north-eastern front — at a time when Russia continues systematically attacking Ukrainian infrastructure.
