Nearly 80% of Ukrainians expect Ukraine to win the war against Russia — KMIS
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians—79%—believe that Ukraine will win the war. This is according to the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. At the same time, over the past month and a half, the proportion of those who are absolutely convinced of Ukraine’s victory has decreased significantly. Their number has fallen from 60% to 47%.
According to sociologists, 47% of respondents firmly believe in Ukraine’s victory, while another 32% tend to believe that Ukraine will win. Seven percent of those surveyed predict a Russian victory, and 14% were undecided.
Compared to February 2025, the overall level of confidence in victory has remained virtually unchanged. However, at the end of July 2026, 85% of respondents believed in Ukraine’s victory, with 60% being absolutely certain of it.
Thus, by mid-September, the share of those absolutely certain of victory had fallen by 13 percentage points. Some of these respondents shifted to the category of those who “somewhat” believe in victory, while the share of those predicting a Russian victory increased slightly.
“Overall, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians retain faith in victory, but that faith has become less certain in recent weeks,” KMIS noted.
How Ukrainians Envision the End of the War
The largest group of respondents—41%—considers the most realistic scenario to be one in which Ukraine preserves its statehood and independence but is forced to accept territorial losses. In February 2025, 33% of those surveyed gave this response.
KMIIS explained that respondents largely perceive this option as a “freeze” of the war along the current front lines. At the same time, the question did not imply official recognition of the occupied territories as part of Russia.
At the same time, a total of 53% of respondents chose scenarios that envisage the de-occupation of at least part of Ukrainian territories. In February 2025, this figure stood at 60%.
Specifically, 14% consider a return to the de facto borders by 2022 to be realistic, 4% expect the de-occupation of the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and 23% expect the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its 1991 borders. Another 12% expect the full restoration of territorial integrity and the transfer of hostilities to Russian territory.
Survey Methodology
KMIS conducted the survey from September 12 to 21 via telephone interviews. A total of 1,002 adult Ukrainian citizens residing in government-controlled territory participated in the survey.
The sample did not include citizens residing in temporarily occupied territories or Ukrainians who left the country after February 24, 2022. However, the survey did include internally displaced persons.
Under normal circumstances, the maximum formal statistical margin of error for indicators close to 50% does not exceed 4.1%. KMIIS notes that in wartime conditions, a systematic bias is added to this margin of error; however, the results remain sufficiently representative for analyzing public sentiment.
This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from September 12 to 21, 2026.
Most Ukrainians consider the war to be the main challenge, according to the poll.
As a reminder, according to the latest sociological survey conducted by the Kyiv Security Forum, Ukrainians are divided in their views on the borders and conditions that must be met to make peace with Russia.
Over the past year, Ukrainians have become even more supportive of the country’s accession to the EU and NATO: 83% support the EU, and 71% support NATO. These are record-high figures for the entire period of observation, while approximately 11% and 18%, respectively, oppose membership, according to data from a sociological survey prepared by the Razumkov Center at the request of the Kyiv Security Forum specifically ahead of the Munich Security Conference, which will take place on February 13–15.
