Russian "Rassvet" satellites have begun providing communication windows over Ukraine
The Russian “Rassvet” satellite constellation, operated by Bureau 1440, already provides at least two “communication windows” over Ukrainian territory every day. Each of these lasts more than an hour, potentially allowing Russian troops to use satellite communications to control drones and other assets.
According to an expert, as of July 31, the satellites launched in late March had nearly completed the formation of an operational orbital constellation.
Specifically:
- 12 of the 16 satellites are already at their operational altitude of 550 kilometers;
- three more satellites are continuing to reach the required altitude;
- one satellite was likely lost due to a manufacturing defect.
“We can see that a chain of satellites with good coverage has effectively already formed. It provides such coverage approximately twice a day, but in reality, there are more such passes. Such chains can pass over different regions at intervals of about an hour and a half. Most importantly, these satellites are already providing fairly dense coverage,” noted Volodymyr Stepanets.
According to the N2YO service, Russian satellites enter the line of sight over Ukraine four times a day.
At the same time, only two or three passes occur at a sufficient altitude to ensure stable satellite communication with ground terminals.
Each such “communication window,” lasting from one to one and a half hours, can theoretically be used to:
- providing military satellite communications;
- controlling unmanned maritime vessels;
- controlling heavy strike and reconnaissance UAVs, in particular those based on the “Geran-2/3/4” series.
In late July, Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov, an advisor to the President of Ukraine on defense technology development, reported that Russia had launched a second batch of “Rassvet” satellites into orbit, which it plans to use as its own counterpart to Starlink.
Following this, he said, the total number of satellites in the system reached approximately 40.
According to “Military” estimates, if the current pace of deployment continues, the system could provide two additional “communication windows” in October–November.
The official commercial launch of the network is scheduled for 2027, but military use may begin earlier.
Previously, Russian sources had announced plans to increase the number of satellites:
- up to 250 satellites by 2027;
- up to 730 by 2030;
- over 900 by 2035.
However, as the publication notes, to carry out such a plan, Russia would have to launch approximately 16 satellites per month, whereas currently launches occur roughly once every four months.
At the same time, even at the current launch rate, the fourth orbital group could be formed by March 2027, and by mid-summer 2027, it could potentially provide round-the-clock satellite coverage over Ukraine, provided that no effective countermeasures are developed by then.
This was reported by satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets after analyzing the flight paths of Russian satellites.
Earlier, Planet Labs satellites captured the aftermath of drone attacks on logistics centers belonging to the Russian marketplace Wildberries in Krasnodar and Nevinnomyssk.
