The Russian oil refining industry's situation has worsened due to Ukrainian strikes, according to the IEA
The Russian oil refining industry is deteriorating, and international sanctions are hindering its recovery following increasingly intense attacks by Ukrainian drones.
This conclusion is contained in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly report on the oil market.
“It is likely that the constant drone strikes and the piecemeal nature of repair work are having a cumulative negative effect and undermining the operation of the (Russian—ed.) oil refining system,” the agency noted.
Ukraine is attacking Russian energy infrastructure to reduce the Kremlin’s revenues, which are used to finance a full-scale war.
According to Bloomberg’s calculations based on public statements from Ukraine and Russia, Russian oil refineries suffered at least 22 strikes in August. This is the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale war.
Against this backdrop, the IEA has lowered its baseline forecast for Russian oil refining volumes over the next 18 months to approximately 4 million barrels per day. This is about 30% less than before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The IEA does not rule out that even this forecast may turn out to be overly optimistic.
“There remains a risk that even this more cautious estimate may underestimate the challenges facing the Russian refining sector. Longer delivery times for spare parts and the onset of cold weather could put additional strain on the Russian system,” the report states.
The IEA also noted an increase in the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
“Ukrainian forces are deploying multiple waves of drones against specific targets, bypassing protective nets and air defense systems. Target acquisition also appears to have become more precise,” the agency noted.
According to IEA estimates, Ukrainian drones are now striking secondary processing units at Russian refineries. Replacing these units, the agency estimates, could take between six and eight months.
An additional challenge for the Russian oil industry is sanctions, which restrict access to spare parts and complicate repair work.
Against the backdrop of reduced refinery operations, the IEA has also lowered its forecast for Russian oil supplies in 2026 by 125,000 barrels per day.
The agency now expects the figure to be 8.7 million barrels per day.
Thus, according to the IEA’s assessment, the combined impact of Ukrainian strikes, inadequate repairs, sanctions, and equipment supply issues is placing increasing pressure on the Russian oil refining system.
This was reported by Bloomberg.
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