A Strategy of Escalation: How Many Times Has Lukashenko Announced Military Readiness Drills?
11 September 2026 19:00On September 11, Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, once again announced a large-scale readiness drill for his troops, stating that “the time has come to ‘shake up’ the entire army, right up to ‘mobilization.’” At the same time, the Belarusian leader once again tried to portray himself as a peacemaker and pragmatist.
“Some people here are trying to accuse us of supposedly planning to attack someone tomorrow. I’ll say it again: we’re not going to attack anyone; we’re pragmatists,” he assured after a meeting with military officials at the Obuz-Lisnovsky training ground. However, each such statement invariably fuels negative expectations and raises questions about Minsk’s intentions. What does Lukashenko want—to distance himself from Putin’s military plans, or, on the contrary, to join the hostilities?
UA.News recalls how many such bellicose statements Alexander Lukashenko has made and how he has justified this ostentatious “sabre-rattling” all along.
Combat Readiness
Tests and Large-Scale Maneuvers
The Belarusian army has been in a state of constant training and inspections since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. However, over the past three years, Alexander Lukashenko has personally announced and initiated more than 10 large-scale surprise combat readiness inspections of the Belarusian armed forces or significant reinforcements of troop concentrations along the border with Ukraine and NATO countries. The most notable announced activities occurred on the following key dates:
April 3, 2023: The Belarusian Ministry of Defense, acting on Lukashenko’s orders, launched a “comprehensive inspection of the army’s combat readiness.” At that time, tank and mechanized units were deployed to areas near the borders. The maneuvers took place after the self-proclaimed president stated in an address to the nation that NATO countries were preparing to invade Belarusian territory.
“Take my word for it, I have never lied to you. They are preparing to invade Belarusian territory to destroy our country,” Lukashenko asserted. At the same time, he said, NATO was rapidly moving troops eastward. Lukashenko also claimed that regiments and legions were being formed in the West to carry out a coup in the country.
December
15, 2023: The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced the start of a surprise inspection of the Air Force (AF) and Air Defense Forces (ADF) on duty. “Units of the anti-aircraft missile and electronic warfare forces have moved into their designated areas and begun carrying out combat missions. The S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as the ‘Rosa-RB’ low-altitude radar systems, have been deployed,” the ministry said.
The exercise was explained as a result of increased integration with the Russian Federation’s military infrastructure and the need to monitor airspace along NATO’s borders.
March 11, 2024: Another comprehensive combat readiness inspection was announced, involving the deployment of military equipment on civilian roads and the conduct of live-fire exercises. As emphasized by the Belarusian military, the inspection is comprehensive in nature: “Personnel must deploy to designated areas and conduct a series of exercises and training sessions, including live-fire drills.” The authorities explained that this is Belarus’s response to NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024 military exercises in Poland and the Baltic states, which took place from January 22 to May 31.
May
7, 2024: After Russia announced exercises involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons, Belarus declared that it would also conduct a surprise inspection of delivery systems for non-strategic nuclear weapons. The Ministry of Defense reported that Commander-in-Chief Alexander Lukashenko personally ordered this. A division of the “Iskander” operational-tactical complex and a squadron of Su-25 aircraft were brought to a state of readiness to carry out their missions.
June 21, 2024: An inspection of the units’ readiness to carry out their assigned tasks began in the Gomel and Brest regions. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that during the first stage, units practiced operational maneuvers in designated areas, conducted engineering preparations, organized security and defense measures, and assumed combat duty. Military units and subunits from operational commands, special operations forces, missile and artillery forces, the Air Force, and the Air Defense Forces of Belarus were involved in the inspection.
September
12–16, 2025: The joint Russian-Belarusian strategic military exercises “Zapad-2025” took place on Belarusian territory. Following these exercises, Alexander Lukashenko spoke about the alleged rehearsal of the use of nuclear warheads. The Belarusian General Staff even reported the deployment of a system called “Oreshnik,” but did not release any photos or videos to confirm this. Russian bloggers and commentators called the Russian-Belarusian military exercises a “circus show.”
Ukrainian analysts noted that the exercises themselves were conducted on a scaled-down basis—which could indicate Russia’s limited resources amid the war in Ukraine.
August 26, 2026: The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced another round of inspections. The decision was made during a visit to Moscow by John Ratcliffe, Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The command planned to assess the readiness of Belarusian units to operate in the conditions of a modern armed conflict. One of the brigades was to be withdrawn from its permanent deployment location and its deployment to carry out military tasks was to be simulated.
The Belarusian side did not disclose specific dates for the completion of the exercise or a full list of the tasks the troops would be assigned. Minsk also did not state that the exercise was related to preparations for actual combat operations.
Statements on the Reinforcement of Troops on the Border with Ukraine
June–July 2024: Alexander Lukashenko ordered the deployment of additional forces (the “Polonez” multiple rocket launchers and Special Operations Forces units) to the border with Ukraine. The self-proclaimed president accused Kyiv of “provocations” and an alleged buildup of Ukrainian forces in the Zhytomyr and Rivne regions. By mid-July, Lukashenko held a meeting in the Gomel region and announced an “easing of tensions” in the border zone, while also ordering some troops to be withdrawn back to their bases.
August 13, 2024: Following the launch of a Ukrainian Armed Forces operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, Alexander Lukashenko again announced the redeployment of rocket systems, special forces, and specialized equipment to the Gomel and Mozyr regions on the border with the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. He claimed that several aerial targets allegedly moving from the direction of Ukraine had been shot down over Belarus.
August 20, 2026: The self-proclaimed president ordered that approximately 500 Belarusian agricultural workers—whose work the country’s authorities deemed negligent—be sent to military training exercises on the border with Ukraine. “Anyone who doesn’t know how to work—off to the army and to the southern border. Into the forest. Our guys, the special operations forces, are deployed along the Ukrainian border on my orders,” Lukashenko said.
Attempts at Blackmail and a Strategy of Uncertainty
Alexander Lukashenko’s constant rhetoric about inspections and “shakes-ups” in the Belarusian army is largely aimed at three audiences: in Kyiv, Moscow, and within Belarus itself.
In Kyiv, they understand that if the Russian army decides to launch an offensive from Belarusian territory, Putin will not ask the self-proclaimed president for permission. But Lukashenko’s statements are still being noted. This is because it was from Belarus that Russian troops advanced into northern Ukraine in 2022. Moreover, military drills and the movement of equipment along the northern border are forcing our Defense Forces to maintain significant reserves in the north, preventing them from redeploying those forces to the eastern or southern fronts.
For his domestic audience, Lukashenko “stokes” fears of aggression from the West and NATO. He constantly justifies military drills by citing the alleged “aggressive plans” of Poland, Lithuania, and the U.S., thereby fostering an image within the country of a besieged outpost.
At the same time, by intensifying informational and psychological pressure and allegedly creating tension along Ukraine’s northern borders, Minsk is demonstrating its loyalty to the Kremlin. Alexander Lukashenko may be deterred from actively participating in the war on Russia’s side by such obvious factors as preemptive strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against air defense systems and oil refineries, as is happening deep within Russia’s rear or on the territory of annexed Crimea.
