Russia’s offensive pace in Ukraine has dropped to its lowest level since early autumn
Over the past week, Russian forces captured only 44 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, according to data from the OSINT project DeepState, which is close to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. The last time Russia took control of less territory in a single week was in the second half of September.
The largest territorial gains over the week were recorded on the frontline section between Siversk and Kostiantynivka, where Russian forces advanced by 20 km². Another 6–7 km² were captured in the southern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, while about 3 km² were taken in eastern Kharkiv region.
According to the Black Bird Group, the pace of Russia’s advance slowed in December due to changing weather conditions, urban fighting in Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, and Huliaipole, as well as a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kupiansk. In total, Russia captured 347 km² in December — the lowest monthly figure since April.
Military analyst Yan Matveev explains the slowdown as a combination of resource exhaustion, effective Ukrainian defense, and weather conditions. As he put it, “the generals are resting over the holidays, and there is little sense in rushing forward.”
Black Bird Group predicts that Russia’s winter gains will remain limited. Most likely, Russian forces will continue offensive operations on several axes, attempting to break through defenses around Pokrovsk, capture Lyman, and advance toward the Dobropillia direction. The main long-term objective remains the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk area and the rest of Donetsk region.
Overall, in 2025, Russia captured approximately 4,500 km² of Ukrainian territory — 31% more than in 2024, but still less than 1% of Ukraine’s total area.
Russian occupation forces continue their offensive in Donetsk region. According to DeepState, the enemy has advanced in the areas of Fedorivka and Novomarkove in the Bakhmut and Kramatorsk districts. A map of the advance has been published by the project.
