Vivaldi has changed the Kremlin's calculations regarding the Donbas
The Ukrainian Defense Forces’ “Vivaldi” operation may have significantly influenced the Russian leadership’s calculations regarding the Donbas. This is the view of Czech expert Tomáš Kopecký, who called the operation a success not only from a military standpoint but also from a psychological one. According to him, Moscow may now be forced to reconsider its plans for an offensive and mobilization.
The expert believes that the Ukrainian military’s operation has permanently altered the situation in Donbas and influenced the expectations of the Russian leadership. “Without a doubt, this is a very successful operation from both a military and a psychological standpoint. It is an operation that, I would say, has for a long time dashed the Kremlin’s hopes of achieving the goals that Vladimir Putin set for the Russian army in Donbas,” Kopechny stated.
According to him, the implications may extend beyond the situation directly on the front lines. The expert believes that the Russian leadership will now have to consider how to proceed with further mobilization.
Russia will have to think about mobilization
Kopechnyy speculates that following the results of “Vivaldi,” Moscow may once again discuss the format of mobilization—whether open or covert. His reasoning is that a large number of people on the front lines alone does not guarantee Russia significant territorial gains. According to the expert, even the large-scale deployment of mobilized units and heavy casualties do not necessarily yield the results the Kremlin expects for the Russian army.
“Thanks to Operation ‘Vivaldi,’ the Russian leadership sees that even the large-scale deployment of mobilized units, with a huge number of casualties, does not necessarily lead to any significant success,” Kopechny said.
However, this is merely the expert’s assessment. At present, there is no public data confirming that the Russian authorities have already made a new decision regarding mobilization specifically because of Operation “Vivaldi.”
What Strategy Does the Expert See for Russia?
Kopechny identifies two main directions of Russia’s strategy. The first involves direct ground combat operations and attempts to seize Ukrainian territory. This refers to the advance of Russian troops along the front lines. The second direction involves strikes against Ukraine’s rear areas—primarily targeting the energy sector, the healthcare system, and other infrastructure.
According to Kopetchny, these two aspects are interconnected. If it becomes more difficult for Russia to advance on the front lines, Moscow may shift its focus to attacks on the rear. “And the less Russia manages to advance on the front lines, the more its energy and propaganda will focus on this second component—that is, on destruction,” the expert said.
At the same time, Kopetchny does not believe that attacks on the rear are merely an emotional reaction to the Russian army’s setbacks.
What the expert said about the attacks on Kyiv
Separately, Kopetchny commented on the attacks on the bridges across the Dnipro River in Kyiv. He does not view them as a sign of desperation or simply Russia’s desire to take revenge on Ukraine for its lack of success on the front lines.
In his view, strikes on the rear are part of Russia’s military strategy. Their goal, according to the expert, is to create additional problems for Ukraine and undermine its ability to continue its defense. “This is part of their military thinking: simply trying to destroy the rear to undermine Ukraine’s will to continue successfully resisting them on the front lines,” Kopechny noted.
In other words, in his assessment, Russia’s military operations are not limited to the front lines themselves. He views strikes on infrastructure and other targets in the rear as a separate component of this strategy.
What Is Known About Operation “Vivaldi”
Operation “Vivaldi” is being carried out by the Third Army Corps, together with attached units, in the north of Donetsk Oblast. It first came to light in September, when Corps Commander Andriy Biletsky reported on the initial results. Initially, the operation was conducted under a media blackout. Ukrainian military officials reported the liberation of settlements and the return of territories to Ukrainian control.
During the second phase, the Ukrainian military reported the liberation of Shandryholove and Derylove, as well as the establishment of full control over Drobyshev. At that time, it was also reported that 50 square kilometers of territory had been brought back under control. During the third phase, according to reports from the Ukrainian side, Novoye, Ridkodub, and Katerynivka were liberated. The Ukrainian military also regained control of Karpivka and Novomykhailivka.
As of October 5, Ukrinform, citing data from the Third Army Corps, reported that the third phase of the operation had been completed and that Ukrainian forces had regained control of 176 square kilometers of territory.
At the same time, individual assessments of the operation’s results vary depending on the stage and the timing of their announcement. Therefore, statements regarding its impact on future decisions by the Russian leadership remain expert assessments rather than established facts. This was stated by Tomáš Kopecký, the Czech Chamber of Commerce’s Special Representative for Ukraine, former Deputy Minister of Defense of the Czech Republic, and the government’s plenipotentiary for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
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