Abnormal heat in Europe has caused more than €2 billion in damage to grain crops — Financial Times
The June heatwave in Europe led to significant losses in agriculture. The value of the destroyed grain crops is estimated at more than 2 billion euros, with farmers in France and Hungary hit the hardest.
Over the four weeks following the heat wave, grain production forecasts for the EU and the United Kingdom were reduced by nearly 9 million metric tons. According to ECIU estimates, the losses amount to approximately 2.1 billion euros in national prices for wheat, barley, corn, and other crops (or about 5% of the estimated value of production in 2025).
The heat wave hit wheat during the critical grain-filling period in central and southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary. Spring barley was affected more severely than winter barley. During an unusually hot June in Western Europe, temperatures were 3°C higher than the 1991–2020 average. In France, temperatures exceeded 43°C, and in Hungary, they exceeded 40°C.
About half of the total reduction in the harvest forecast for Europe was attributed to corn, which is used primarily for livestock feed. Due to the heat during the flowering period in France and Hungary, Coceral lowered its corn harvest forecast for the EU and the UK from 57.2 million metric tons to 52.7 million metric tons.
Since the EU is a net importer of corn in years of poor harvests, this shortfall could increase demand for supplies from external suppliers, particularly from Ukraine and Brazil. The smaller French harvest may also reduce the amount of wheat available for export to Africa, and livestock producers will soon feel the impact of higher feed costs.
The following countries were hardest hit by the heat:
- France: accounted for nearly half of the total losses—the harvest forecast was reduced by 4.1 million metric tons (approximately €891 million). The main decline was in corn—down 3.35 million metric tons (to 9.4 million metric tons), which is lower than the figures from the 2022 drought.
- Hungary: The forecast was reduced by 2.4 million metric tons (about €444 million).
- Spain: lost 1.4 million metric tons (€276 million).
- Germany: the forecast was reduced by 1.4 million metric tons (€233 million).
Because harvest forecasts were slightly raised in Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Finland, the total losses to European production amount to about €1.79 billion, according to the Financial Times.
Meanwhile, temperatures in Ukraine are set to rise again to +37°: the weekly weather forecast.
As a reminder, Belgium has recorded a sharp rise in mortality amid a severe heat wave. According to the Sciensano public health institute, the excess mortality rate reached 47%—the highest figure since records began in 2000.
Earlier, average nuclear power generation in France fell below 33 GW, the lowest level in the past nine months, due to the need to limit output at nuclear power plants. The reduction was caused by a critical rise in the temperature of the water in the rivers used to cool the reactors.
