Transnistria's economy is plunging into crisis due to a gas shortage

The economy of the unrecognized Transnistrian region, which the international community considers to be territory occupied by Russia, is undergoing a severe crisis amid energy problems and political instability.

This is reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the region’s exports have fallen by nearly 60%, while imports have dropped by 24.5%. The new budget and tax plan for 2027–2029, adopted in Tiraspol, indicates significant financial difficulties for the pro-Russian enclave.

“The key factor behind the decline was the cessation, effective January 1, 2025, of virtually free Russian gas transit through Ukraine. As a result, industrial production fell by 27.3%, foreign trade by 28.5%, and real GDP contracted by nearly 18%,” the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported.

Despite a partial recovery in production in early 2026, its level remains approximately 20% lower than in 2024. At the same time, foreign economic activity continues to decline.

Due to the budget deficit, local authorities are forced to delay salaries for public sector employees and pay them in installments. In particular, employees received the second installment of their February salaries only at the end of March.

“The situation demonstrates the region’s critical dependence on Russian energy resources and the limitations of its economic model under conditions of isolation and unrecognized status. Currently, the Russian economy itself is facing numerous problems—sanctions pressure, rising budget expenditures, and structural imbalances—which reduce its ability to provide financial assistance to Transnistria,” Ukrainian intelligence analysts note.