Probability of super El Niño in 2026 exceeds 90% — The Hill
The El Niño climate phenomenon is intensifying in 2026 and could become the strongest in more than 75 years, The Hill reports. According to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, the probability that the phenomenon will reach the highest level of intensity, often called a super El Niño, exceeds 90%.
The center also estimates a 69% probability that this El Niño will become the strongest since 1950. Jeffrey Shaman, senior vice dean and professor at the Columbia Climate School, said that some forecasts allow for the possibility of the strongest El Niño in the entire observation period.
Precipitation forecasts through the end of the year
Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research has prepared a forecast that combines several models and takes into account El Niño and other climate factors. It shows likely changes in precipitation around the world from October through the end of 2026.
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In the southeastern United States, the probability of above-normal precipitation exceeds 70%. At the same time, parts of the country's northeastern states are forecast to have a higher probability of precipitation deficits, which could contribute to drought or worsen it. For Brazil and Southeast Asia, the forecast risk of El Niño-related drought is more serious than for the United States.
Potential impact in 2027
According to the publication, the phenomenon is likely to persist into early 2027. It could then have a stronger impact on the U.S. West Coast: bringing more rain to Southern California and making the Pacific Northwest somewhat drier. The Ohio Valley also usually experiences drier conditions in El Niño years.
The Climate Prediction Center stressed that even very strong El Niño episodes do not guarantee typical effects in every region, but can significantly increase the likelihood of expected scenarios. Shaman noted that seasonal forecasts are also influenced by other factors, including global warming.
