North Korea has gained combat experience in the war against Ukraine
North Korea is using Russia’s war against Ukraine to gain combat experience and prepare for a possible aggression on the Korean Peninsula. The Center for Countering Disinformation believes that Pyongyang may now see this as an opportune moment to take further action.
According to him, North Korea is interested in gaining as much practical experience as possible during Russia’s war against Ukraine. “The DPRK is interested in gaining experience from Russia’s war against Ukraine in order to launch a phase of aggression on the Korean Peninsula,” Kovalenko noted.
This goes beyond simply observing the war. The North Korean military is already gaining real-world experience on the battlefield by cooperating with Russia. This experience may involve the use of drones, artillery, modern warfare tactics, and other military technologies.
Pyongyang may see a “window of opportunity”
Kovalenko believes that a favorable situation may now be emerging for North Korea. In particular, he pointed to the standoff between the United States and Iran. In his view, if Washington and its allies focus their attention on other conflicts, Pyongyang may see this as an opportunity to act.
Kovalenko cited the depletion of ammunition stocks as another factor. According to him, this could affect stability throughout the Indo-Pacific region. “Pyongyang may currently see a ‘window of opportunity’ against the backdrop of the standoff between the United States and Iran,” said the head of the Center for Strategic and Political Studies. Under these circumstances, Kovalenko believes, Japan and South Korea will have to devote even more attention to their own defense and security.
North Korea and Russia Are Cooperating More Closely
North Korea and Russia have significantly strengthened their military cooperation in recent years. Pyongyang is assisting Moscow in the war against Ukraine, specifically by supplying weapons and deploying military personnel. For North Korea, this is also an opportunity to gain something that cannot be obtained through training alone: real-world combat experience.
At the same time, North Korea remains one of the most closed-off countries in the world. Therefore, the exact plans of its leadership regarding possible actions on the Korean Peninsula are currently unknown. Kovalenko also drew a parallel between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. “One way or another, there’s an authoritarian madman in Pyongyang who bears a striking resemblance to Putin—and from whom Putin is also learning,” said the head of the Center for Strategic and Political Studies.
He also mentioned restrictions on internet access in Russia, which, according to him, may in the future resemble the system already in place in North Korea. “In particular, the internet restrictions that Russians can expect within the next two years will completely replicate the system in place in North Korea. It’s just that Russians haven’t figured this out yet,” Kovalenko added.
Thus, according to the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), Russia’s war against Ukraine has become for North Korea not only an opportunity to support Moscow but also a way to gain military experience. Officials in Kyiv believe that Pyongyang may eventually try to use this experience against its adversaries in East Asia. This was stated by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Ukrainian intelligence has detected the Kremlin’s preparations for a new wave of mobilization measures this fall. According to him, Russia may also be planning to bring in another 30,000 troops from North Korea for the war against Ukraine.
Russian Presidential Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to confirm or deny reports that Russia may be bringing in another 30,000 troops from North Korea to fight in the war against Ukraine.
