Pro-Kremlin economists have sharply downgraded their forecast for the Russian economy due to drone strikes

Analysts close to the Kremlin have lowered their forecast for Russia's economic growth amid Ukrainian drone attacks on oil infrastructure.

These are estimates from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting (CMAP).

The expected GDP growth for 2026 is now only 0.5–0.7%, down from the previous 0.9–1.3%. The forecast for 2027 has also been downgraded to 1–1.2%.

The reason cited is damage to ports and oil refineries, which is leading to a reduction in oil production and exports. In particular, key facilities in the Baltic and Black Seas have been affected.

Due to shipping problems, oil surpluses are accumulating in storage facilities and pipelines, forcing production cuts.

Among additional risks, experts cite a possible halt to oil transit to Europe, tighter sanctions, and high interest rates.

As a result, according to their estimates, the Russian economy risks falling into stagnation instead of the expected growth.

Russia is seeing a trend toward staff reductions across various sectors, including IT, healthcare, logistics, manufacturing, retail, consulting, and other business services.

The Russian Ministry of Finance forecasts a sharp increase in regional budget deficits to $21 billion.