Saudi Arabia forecasts 12.8% GDP growth in 2027 — Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi Arabia forecasts real GDP growth of 12.8% in 2027 after an expected 3.6% contraction of the economy in 2026, linked to lower oil production. At the same time, the preliminary budget plan for 2027 provides for a deficit of 3.6% of GDP, Asharq Al-Awsat reports.
Government spending in 2027 is projected at 1.392 trillion Saudi riyals, or $371 billion. Revenue is expected to total 1.202 trillion riyals ($320.5 billion), while the deficit is projected at about 190 billion riyals, or $50.5 billion. The government plans to maintain investment spending, diversify sources of growth and gradually reduce the deficit in subsequent years.
Three revenue scenarios
The budget plan for 2027–2029 provides for three revenue scenarios while annual spending remains almost unchanged at about 1.392 trillion riyals. Under the baseline scenario, revenue will amount to 1.202 trillion riyals and the deficit will be approximately 191 billion riyals. With higher revenue, receipts could reach 1.261 trillion riyals and the deficit could decrease to 132 billion. In the case of lower revenue, it is estimated at 1.134 trillion riyals, while the deficit is projected at 259 billion.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
Abdullah Almir, an associate professor of economics at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, said that maintaining substantial spending amid a deficit reflects a course aimed at supporting economic growth and structural transformation. In his assessment, Saudi Arabia's public debt stands at 30–33% of GDP.
Growth in non-oil revenue
According to Almir, non-oil revenue covered about 17% of the country's total spending in 2015, while in 2025 this figure rose to 36%. Financial and economic adviser Hussein Alattas also cited data showing that non-oil revenue increased from approximately 166 billion riyals in 2015 to 505 billion riyals in 2025.
Experts attribute this to private-sector growth and investment in infrastructure, tourism, digital transformation, industry and technology. At the same time, oil remains a key source of budget revenue and exports, so public finances remain vulnerable to fluctuations in prices and production volumes.
