The U.S. has warned Poland of a possible Russian provocation – The Telegraph
The U.S. has repeatedly warned Poland about a possible armed provocation by Russia, which, according to U.S. assessments, could occur in the coming months. This was reported by The Telegraph, citing its own sources and sources from the Polish publication Onet.
According to an Onet source close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, Warsaw has received such warnings from Washington on several occasions. Sources in the Polish Ministry of Defense and diplomatic circles also stated that the risk of a Russian provocation against Poland or one of the Baltic states is assessed as serious. A source in one of the Baltic states speaking to The Telegraph confirmed that such scenarios are allegedly being considered in Moscow.
According to Polish security services, one possible scenario could involve a drone attack on critical infrastructure, such as power plants, or simulated airstrikes to test the air defense system’s response.
Sources also do not rule out a hybrid attack in a border region or even a limited incursion involving Russian or Belarusian military forces. In such a scenario, Moscow could explain the incident as an accidental border crossing due to a GPS malfunction or as a rescue operation following a helicopter crash.
According to The Telegraph, the Kremlin may be counting on Poland, under pressure from the U.S., to opt for negotiations rather than a military response. One of Russia’s possible demands during such negotiations, sources claim, could be an end to support for Ukraine.
At the same time, Onet’s sources emphasize that Russia has allegedly not yet made a final decision on implementing such a scenario, and the provocation itself would not necessarily take the form of a conventional war.
According to The Telegraph, in the event of a Russian provocation, NATO could respond with strikes on military targets in the Kaliningrad region. A representative of the Polish Ministry of Defense confirmed to Onet that the risk of a provocation exists, but noted that the Polish army has already conducted exercises designed to demonstrate the Alliance’s readiness for a decisive response.
At the upcoming NATO summit, the allies plan to reaffirm their long-term support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that assistance must be stable, predictable, and designed for the long term.
Russia may have been conducting covert reconnaissance of NATO countries’ nuclear facilities for over a year and a half using drones launched from ships of the so-called “shadow fleet.”
