Ghana forecasts key rate cut to 12.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana may cut the policy rate by 150 basis points to 12.5% in September 2026. This forecast was published by research company Databank Research, MyJoyOnline reports.
Databank Research forecast
Analysts believe that the possible rate cut would be consistent with inflation continuing to move toward the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 8%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. Databank Research noted that monetary policy maintained a cautious easing course in the first half of 2026 despite external shocks.
The first rate cut in 2026 took place in March, when it was set at 14%. In July, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana left the rate unchanged, also at 14%.
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Inflation and the banking sector
According to Databank Research, inflation accelerated from 3.8% in January to 5.3% in June 2026. This was linked to renewed price pressure from energy and imported inputs, although monthly inflation remained relatively subdued.
At the same time, easing financial conditions supported lending: nominal private-sector credit growth stood at 41.2% year on year, while real growth was 34.1%. The banking sector’s capital adequacy ratio was estimated at 20.4%, while the share of non-performing loans fell to 16.1%.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana also expressed concern over rising global prices and transport costs, as well as the renewed conflict in the Middle East.
