Pakistan expects inflation to slow to 10.75% in September — Dawn

In Pakistan, analysts and market participants forecast that annual inflation will slow to 10.25–10.75% in September after 11.1% in August. As Dawn reports, estimates remain uncertain due to the war in the Persian Gulf and fluctuations in global oil prices.

Inflation forecast

According to Topline Securities, the consumer price index may rise by 10.25–10.75% year-on-year in September. This is below the August figure, but does not mean a significant slowdown in price growth. In July, official annual inflation stood at 9.2%.

Money market expert S. S. Iqbal noted that the exact figure is difficult to assess due to daily changes in oil prices on international and domestic markets. According to him, inflation may be somewhat lower than in August but could remain close to that level.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

The impact of oil and the war in the Gulf

The financial sector expects oil to cost between $90 and $100 per barrel in the final days of September and in October. Analysts suggest that if the war resumes, its price could remain close to $100 per barrel, although the situation will depend on the availability of supplies on the international market.

Pakistan imports 70% of the oil and gas it needs, so domestic inflation is particularly sensitive to rising energy prices. The publication notes that fuel prices in the country rose daily and reached the highest level in the region. In India, gasoline prices increased by 10%, in Bangladesh by 16%, and in Pakistan by more than 50%.

Costs for electricity, housing, food and construction have also increased, which could push inflation above forecasts. Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves, which exceed $21.4 billion, may partially mitigate the impact of higher oil import costs, but cannot eliminate inflationary pressure if high energy prices persist for a prolonged period.